It all depends on where the Federal Reserve's hammer falls in June. The Federal Reserve is about to hold a meeting, and everyone is holding their breath. Can Bitcoin reach $112,000? It all depends on where the Federal Reserve's hammer falls in June.

The Federal Reserve is about to hold a meeting, and everyone is holding their breath.

On one hand, Bitcoin (BTC) has just reached a historical high of $112,000, on the other hand, there is uncertainty about the upcoming macro policy: will this wave of growth continue after a breather? Or will the policy fall short of expectations and turn around directly?

The core catalyst is summed up in one word: 'interest'.

One, will the Fed not cut rates in June? The market has anticipated this early, but the variables are just beginning.

So far, the market has basically recognized that the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on June 18 will keep the current interest rate level unchanged (4.25%~4.50%).

According to the CME FedWatch tool, 97.5% of people bet that there will be no rate cuts this time, in other words - the market has pretty much digested the 'holding steady' script.

But the key question is: if there is a sudden rate cut, it would be a black swan that the market did not price in, causing a direct disruption.

Why is it so sensitive? Because Bitcoin's historical high is not just a boast - it is almost linked to rate cuts or monetary easing in every bull market.

Two, Bitcoin strikes $112,000: driven by data catalysts and emotional explosions.

On May 22, Bitcoin once broke through $111,970, setting a historical high, but has now fallen back to around $102,766, clearly entering a correction.

Many people think this is a technical issue, but the key lies in the unclear macro signals:

If macro signals release risk appetite and ease monetary conditions, BTC can ignite again.

If the data is strong and economic resilience exceeds expectations, the Federal Reserve may even continue to 'hold steady' or delay rate cuts, leading to further corrections in risk assets.

Want to break through $112,000? You need to rely on sustained 'risk sentiment improvement' + truly strong catalysts.

Three: 'Will it cut or not' depends on employment, and how strong the dollar is depends on the data.

On June 6, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the highly anticipated non-farm payroll report. This is not just an economic reference, but also a barometer for the Fed's rate cuts.

Currently, the earlier rounds of economic data are generally soft, but not 'bad' enough to force the Fed to immediately ease.

'If new jobs exceed 250,000, that would be a heavy blow to the market, and expectations would immediately shift to 'rate cuts delayed'. But if employment is bleak, the Fed may feel pressured to ease earlier.'

In other words, the worse the employment data, the better it is for BTC; the better the data, the colder the risk assets.

Summary: The Federal Reserve is the anchor, BTC is the ship - June will set the direction.

In summary:

No rate cut in June? The market has digested this, but no rate cut + strong employment may suppress BTC's short-term expectations;

If employment data disappoints + the Fed softens its tone, BTC breaking through $112,000 is just the starting point;

If there is an unexpected rate cut, it could push Bitcoin directly to $120,000;

But if the data is strong and interest rates are maintained longer, Bitcoin may retest the $98,000–$100,000 range.

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