The crypto market saw another wave of turbulence this week. Ethereum (ETH) gave back over 7% of its gains in just a few days, catching many investors off guard. Despite a cumulative increase of over 30% in the past 30 days, the sudden pullback has raised questions about how many obstacles ETH still faces before reaching the psychological barrier of $3000.
The market is hot, so why did ETH suddenly cool down?
First, let's look at some key data. According to on-chain monitoring, as of June 5, the total locked value (TVL) on the Ethereum network has decreased to 25.1 million ETH, a month-on-month decline of 17%. This figure not only fell below the beginning of the year but also reflects that capital is quietly withdrawing from the Ethereum ecosystem.
Among them, the original MakerDAO's Sky lock-up plummeted by 48%, and Curve Finance also fell by 24%. The migration of funds represents a weakening of market confidence in the Ethereum DeFi sector. Meanwhile, Bitcoin and Solana (SOL) are rising, attracting a lot of attention and liquidity.
Mlion.ai data dashboard shows that the number of active addresses on the Solana chain increased by 15% month-on-month in early June, and the TVL also recorded double-digit growth, becoming a new darling of funds.
Futures market: Calm replaces frenzy
In addition to pressure in the spot market, the derivatives market is also sending subtle signals. The ETH futures premium rate has dropped from 6% last week to 5%. While still in the neutral range, it has failed to break through the 10% bullish threshold for several weeks.
In the past, it was only when the futures premium rate exceeded 10% that it truly reflected market confidence in further increases in Ethereum's price. The current reduction in leveraged funds indicates that while institutional investors are buying at low levels, overall sentiment remains cautious.
Mlion.ai sentiment analysis model also indicates that the on-chain long-short ratio has shown signs of weakening recently, reflecting that short-term speculative demand is cooling down.
The afterglow of the Pectra upgrade
Notably, Ethereum's upward trend began in early May, accompanied by the launch of the Pectra upgrade, which significantly improved network performance. Market sentiment soared, with ETH recording double-digit single-day gains, driving a rebound in the overall crypto market.
Institutional interest grew accordingly, particularly as giants like BlackRock increased their holdings of Ethereum, stabilizing the support level around $2500. However, the positive fundamentals in the short term are gradually being digested, and investors are starting to reassess more realistic upward momentum.
Mlion.ai on-chain capital flow monitoring shows that while institutional buying is still present, its scale has decreased from previous peak levels, and the market is more in a wait-and-see mode for new stimulus signals.
Is breaking through $3000 just a step away?
Comprehensive data suggests that market analysts generally believe that ETH may maintain a volatile stance in the coming weeks. According to mainstream forecasting models, Ethereum is expected to rebound to around $2755.50 in early July, a 7.32% increase from current levels. However, to break through $3000 in one go, stronger trading volume and sentiment support are needed.
From capital flows, changes in TVL to futures leverage positions, Mlion.ai's intelligent model shows that the resistance ETH faces in the short term should not be underestimated. The market currently lacks new catalysts, leading to a rise in investor wait-and-see sentiment, especially in the context of uncertainty regarding Federal Reserve policies and unresolved macroeconomic risks.
However, some analysts point out that this adjustment may instead be a process of accumulating strength, and positioning Ethereum at low levels may be a good opportunity to bet on the next round of market trends.
Summary
For Ethereum to rise above $3000 is not an overnight achievement. Network data, market sentiment, and the macro environment together constitute the 'three mountains' that stand in front of ETH. In times of increased volatility, being able to grasp market rhythms, timely identify turning points, and utilize Mlion.ai's on-chain data tracking, market sentiment monitoring, and intelligent warning systems will become the best weapon to navigate through the fog.
Regardless of how the market unfolds, remember—insight into trends is the key to remaining invincible.
Disclaimer: The above content is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice!