After several months of strong gains, Bitcoin has finally encountered significant resistance at a critical juncture. Recently, Bitcoin fell below $105,000 again, and market sentiment shifted dramatically. The simultaneous deterioration of technical indicators and the derivatives market raises the question: does this mean Bitcoin is about to test the psychological support level of $100,000? This correction may just be the beginning.
Technical alarms are ringing: a support crisis is imminent.
From the four-hour chart, Bitcoin failed to maintain its upward momentum, encountering strong pressure near $112,000, quickly retreating after setting a high of $111,970. As multiple local highs continue to decline, Bitcoin's price has fallen below the 50-period and 100-period moving averages, and lost the previously defended critical support trend line.
According to the Fibonacci retracement indicator automatically plotted by Mlion.ai, Bitcoin has fallen below the 23.60% retracement level of $107,545, with bearish forces clearly strengthening. More worryingly, the 50-period and 100-period EMA on the four-hour chart are about to form a death cross, indicating that the short-term trend will further deteriorate.
Currently, Bitcoin is priced at $104,639, down more than 6% from its historical peak. Meanwhile, the daily RSI indicator has fallen below the neutral level, turning bearish, indicating a rapid weakening of market momentum.
From a deeper perspective, if the price continues to break below the support trend line of $103,534, the subsequent decline may directly target the 200-period moving average of $103,230, and even the 50% retracement level of $102,795. Once this key defense line is breached, the psychological barrier of $100,000 may become the next target area for bears.
Mlion.ai model simulations show that the May low of $101,763 constitutes the last line of defense. If breached, the asset will enter a larger adjustment range.
Derivatives market: bullish sentiment quickly cools.
Data from the derivatives market also releases risk signals that cannot be ignored. According to the latest statistics, open interest has decreased by 0.84% compared to the previous day, currently at $70.59 billion, showing that traders lack confidence in the market's future.
In the past 24 hours, the amount of long positions liquidated reached $35.88 million, while short positions liquidated only amounted to $7.2 million, showing a significant imbalance in long and short positions, reflecting the market's rapid response to downside risks. Meanwhile, the financing rate has quickly dropped from the previous high of 0.0047% to 0.0020%, further indicating a retreat in bullish sentiment.
The Mlion.ai on-chain sentiment tracking system also shows that Bitcoin's on-chain activity has decreased over the past 48 hours, with a strengthened trend of capital outflow. Signs of large holders (whale addresses) reducing their holdings have intensified, while retail sentiment has simultaneously declined, significantly weakening the on-chain buying power.
Is there still hope for a rebound?
Despite the strong bearish atmosphere, a technical rebound in the short term cannot be ruled out. If Bitcoin can stabilize around $103,534 and quickly rebound above $107,545, it may reverse the local weakness and challenge the high range again.
However, the Mlion.ai risk warning module indicates that if macro sentiment (such as Federal Reserve interest rate policies or liquidity expectations) does not improve significantly, even a short-term rebound may just be a 'dead cat bounce,' and a true large-scale trend reversal still requires more data confirmation.
Summary
Bitcoin is currently on the edge of critical support, with a simultaneous weakening of technical indicators and the derivatives market, indicating that it may face deeper correction risks in the future. The psychological barrier of $100,000 has subtly emerged in the sight of bears, and investors need to be alert to the possibility of a breakdown.
In turbulent market conditions, precise data monitoring and sentiment tracking are crucial. Through Mlion.ai's on-chain data insights, capital flow analysis, and trend alerts, investors can grasp the market pulse more quickly, make more scientific and timely decisions, and avoid blindly following the trend.
The next support may be just around the corner; the key is, are you ready?
Disclaimer: The above content is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice!
