The Shiba Inu coin (SHIB), which once captivated countless investors, is now facing the harsh test of reality. Although the community's dream of 'Shiba reaching 1 cent' is still alive, from on-chain data to market trends, the distance between dreams and reality is likely further than imagined.
Since reaching a historical high of about 0.00008845 dollars in October 2021, SHIB's price has failed to effectively rebound, currently down over 85% from its peak. Despite multiple rebounds in the overall crypto market, SHIB's performance has remained lukewarm, far below investors' expectations.
0.001 dollars and 0.01 dollars, how far are the dreams?
Nevertheless, the community's expectations for Shiba Inu's future remain high. In September 2023, analysts Krao and LuckSide predicted that SHIB is likely to break through the 0.001 dollar mark within months, while the price was still at 0.0000138 dollars.
More boldly, Shiba Inu's marketing director Lucie publicly declared in March this year that SHIB has the potential to challenge 0.01 dollars, although she also admitted that this process 'takes time.'
However, looking calmly, both of these targets are still quite distant from reality. Based on the current price of 0.000012 dollars:
To reach 0.001 dollars, SHIB needs to increase by 8,233%.
To touch 0.01 dollars, it needs to surge by 83,233%.
Such an increase is nearly a fantasy in today's market environment. After the peak in 2021, SHIB, in the best case, rose from 0.0000058 dollars in June 2023 to 0.000045 dollars in March 2024, which is only a 686% increase. Even Bitcoin, in the previous cycle, only had an increase of 623%.
Ironically, even though several industry authorities expect Bitcoin to challenge the 250,000 dollar mark this year, its increase is only 1,515%.
Massive Circulating Supply is the Ceiling for SHIB
One of the biggest factors hindering SHIB's price increase is its enormous circulating supply. Currently, over 589 trillion SHIB are circulating in the market.
To reach 0.001 dollars, SHIB's market capitalization would need to reach 589 billion dollars, far exceeding the current market cap of Ethereum. And to realize the dream of 0.01 dollars, its market cap would skyrocket to 5.89 trillion dollars—surpassing not only Bitcoin's market cap but also far exceeding the current total market cap of the entire crypto market (3.3 trillion dollars).
Such a scale of market cap expansion is almost an impossible task in the short term, unless the entire crypto market experiences a magnitude leap, or unless there are major changes in the global financial system.
Shibarium Burn Plan, Distant Water Can't Save Near Fire
As Shiba Inu's Layer-2 network, Shibarium was originally highly anticipated as a key tool to reduce circulating supply and reshape scarcity. But the reality is that since its launch in August 2023, Shibarium has only destroyed 1 billion SHIB—worth about 15,000 dollars.
Compared to a total supply of 589 trillion coins, such a burn scale is almost insignificant. Mlion.ai's on-chain monitoring data shows that the trading activity and growth speed of on-chain projects for Shibarium are both far below expectations, making large-scale burns difficult to support. To truly reduce supply, Shibarium's trading volume needs to increase at least a thousand times.
In other words, it is essentially a luxury to expect Shibarium to support SHIB to reach 0.001 dollars, or even 0.01 dollars, solely based on the current model.
Meme Track Competition Intensifies, SHIB No Longer Dominates
Not only that, but the competition in the Meme coin track is becoming increasingly fierce. Once, SHIB only had to compete with Dogecoin; now, emerging meme coins like Pepe and Bonk have rapidly risen, diverting a large amount of investors' attention and capital.
Mlion.ai's social sentiment tracking data shows that in the past year, discussions about SHIB on social media have declined by over 60%, while newcomers like Pepe and Bonk have maintained high frequency and heat. The market's attention and capital flow are quietly shifting.
Today, investors face a more diverse and fiercely competitive Meme market, and SHIB no longer possesses its former unique advantages.
Future Outlook: Myths Hard to Repeat, Rational Return
Reality tells us that the probability of SHIB returning to 0.001 dollars in the short term is extremely low, and the chance of reaching 0.01 dollars can almost be ruled out.
In the future, SHIB may still record a considerable increase due to market cycle fluctuations, and we might see a peak at 0.0001798 dollars, but this is far below the community's desired targets of 0.001 dollars and 0.01 dollars.
In the long term, only when the overall scale of the crypto market expands significantly, and Shibarium or other new mechanisms can substantially reduce token supply, will SHIB have the chance to shine again. But this may take more than 10 years.
In such an environment, rational investment becomes particularly important. Through AI investment research assistants like Mlion.ai, investors can track on-chain data, market sentiment, and large capital flows in real-time, avoiding blind chasing of dreams and mastering more precise entry and exit timing.
Summary
Shiba Inu coin has gone from a surge to silence, mirroring the cyclical nature of the crypto market and reflecting the emotions of the times. The dream of 1 cent is beautiful, but it drifts further away from reality. The road ahead for SHIB is destined to be more difficult, testing investors' patience and wisdom even more.
Disclaimer: The above content is for informational sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice!