News background
1️⃣Today is the manufacturing PMI. PCE remains unchanged. The last indicator is more for maintaining the rate. Oil is rising (indirectly affecting inflation). Later this week: PMI in services, data on job openings and non-farm payrolls, and this evening - Powell's speech. There can be many changes. For now, I would say the macro leans towards maintaining the rate. Bad for crypto.
2️⃣Tariff story. The USA has quarreled with China again regarding the fact that no one is fulfilling the tariff agreements. Sharp statements are possible. At the same time, the 90-day deal has not been canceled. Negotiations with India at the end of the week. Overall, it's a mixed bag here. For crypto, it could turn in both directions. Last time, Bitcoin played as a safe haven during tariff disputes. It's not a fact that it's ready to repeat that with such macro conditions.
3️⃣Conflicts. Here it’s more or less balanced.
4️⃣Expectations for the Fed rate in June remain unchanged. We are currently observing the macro, but it seems that no surprises are planned there.
Tech analysis.
On Friday, Bitcoin decided to disregard all my forecasts, broke out of the flat and hasn’t returned to it. Instead, it returned to the old 100 - 105k, hit it (for now) exactly in the middle, and seems to be gearing down further. So let's consider the options.
1️⃣A fan of drops downward. Nothing is holding us back from falling right now. I hoped, of course, for a flat. Overall, 106 - 112 remains an option, but it's already less likely than a decline. The first likely level of decline is 101,250 - 100,700. Then 98,000 - the upper boundary of the next flat. Then 92,000 - the lower boundary of the next flat. Around 92,000, if we look at the Bitcoin price on the CME exchange, there's a gap (price gap) - such things often get closed. The last target is our 'catastrophic option.'
2️⃣A reversal upward from the middle of the current flat. We're talking about the flat 100 - 105k. If suddenly there’s some positive news (very soon), then there will be the first attempt to reverse upward from here.
3️⃣A reversal upward from the lower boundary of the current flat. There we have a heavy average - EMA64 on the daily. It also implies some positive news by the end of the week, for example, regarding the rate, etc.
For now, the first option seems the most likely. I expect a touch of the lower boundary of the flat by Thursday. In altcoins, with possible price spikes upward, there will also be a decline, and possibly quite significant - we could stroll about 10% lower.
