Yesterday, Bitcoin (BTC) briefly surged, attempting to break through the 30-day moving average (around $105,000), but today it retraced to that moving average, with the market engaging in speculation at this critical point. Overall market volatility is limited, but events are dense, and structural signals are clear, indicating that the crypto market is welcoming deep integration with mainstream finance.
Macroeconomic background: The $10 billion U.S. debt buyback has attracted attention, Trump continues to pressure the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in an attempt to alleviate economic pressures. Meanwhile, Musk publicly 'breaks up' with Trump, warning of the worsening U.S. debt crisis and calling for a reevaluation of fiscal spending. This adds uncertainty to the market, and caution is still needed.
The crypto space welcomes two major milestone events:
1. JPMorgan starts BTC and crypto ETF collateralized lending: This move marks the formal acceptance of crypto assets by mainstream financial institutions, enhancing the market's long-term confidence in BTC.
2. Circle successfully went public: Circle, centered around USDC, was oversubscribed 25 times, highlighting the deep integration of stablecoin infrastructure with Wall Street. The stablecoin legislation is about to pass, and future narratives surrounding stablecoins (such as DeFi) will continue to gain traction; related tokens are worth close attention.
BTC: Technical analysis and operational strategies.
BTC currently has strong support in the $93,000-$98,000 range, but the chips are moving towards $100,000-$105,000, with short-term investors dominating and price fluctuations being sensitive. BTC is under pressure from the downtrend line, clearly facing short-term resistance, with target levels at $101,000-$102,000.
Operational suggestions:
BTC is currently around $105,000 with ongoing speculation; it's recommended to wait for a pullback to the $101,000-$102,000 or $93,000-$98,000 support range, and consider building positions once stability is confirmed. If opening a short position at the current price, set the stop-loss at the breakout of the downtrend line, with a target risk-reward ratio of 1:2 or higher. Alternatively, wait for a pullback to the downtrend line before shorting, with stop-loss set at the recent high of the candlestick.
ETH: Wide fluctuations, pay attention to key levels.
ETH attempted to break through the $2,660 resistance level last night without success, retracing after a market lure; it is currently in a wide fluctuation range of $2,480-$2,720. If the next rise fails to break $2,700, a pullback might touch $2,500 or even lower. The key is to look for shorting opportunities at the $2,700 level and long opportunities at the $2,500 level.
Operational suggestions:
Short-term traders can pay attention to the $2,700 resistance level to short, or the $2,500 support level to long, with strict stop-loss settings. In a volatile market, control positions, take quick profits, and avoid chasing highs.
My recent bootleg idea is:
Once profitable, do not incur losses; act quickly. Focus mainly on short positions, like $PROMPT.
Hotspots and opportunities: Stablecoins and altcoins.
1. Stablecoin narratives: The IPO of Circle and the advancement of stablecoin legislation bring new opportunities for concepts like DeFi.
2. Coinbase frequently adds new tokens: Recently launched tokens like $LA, $ENA, $CAKE are showing active performance, but the brief surge of $LA after its launch led to liquidations; the platform promises compensation, caution is needed against similar high volatility risks.
Memecoin dynamics:
In the Ethereum chain, the newly speculated memecoin $IGGY has a daily K-line that is truly tempting, like your secret crush dancing in front of you. The best part is that it's not expensive, only at 1 million now, I like it.
Memecoins on the Solana chain (such as labubu, king, ball) have generally retreated, lacking sustained narratives; caution is needed in the short term.
The BSC chain is very active with the support of Alpha. In particular, tokens bound to #wlfi are showing strong performance, and the #wlif airdrop ($47 per address, symbolizing Trump as the 47th president) has attracted attention; related tokens can be positioned for the short term.
