Advisor discusses hot topics:
Today, it's still necessary to complain about the market of the past few days; it's simply a situation even dogs wouldn't want to touch. Liquidity is virtually nonexistent, and the price fluctuation range is ridiculously small. Is the liquidation zone locking the market down? Or did the market die first, leading to this terrible situation?
I'll give you the conclusion first; from my personal perspective, the market in the next couple of days looks like this: if it goes up, it might peak at 108K; if it goes down, crashing to 101K is not a problem.
From the perspective of liquidation intensity, the downward pressure is obviously stronger. The problem is that the price is still stubbornly holding above 103.6K from June 2; you say it's consolidating, yet it truly remains unmoved.
So the current strategy is simple: if the price drops to the liquidation zone below without triggering a long position, then don't hesitate, go for 108K! Conversely, the same logic applies above; if it should be cleared and isn't, there will be a reversal—those who understand, understand.
To be honest, I'm quite speechless about this market. Every time it's non-farm week, the market seems to hold a memorial service beforehand—it's dead silent, low volume, and sideways, giving no room for imagination. I mean, if you're going sideways, at least have some basis for it; it's just playing dead every day.
Moreover, a more realistic issue lies ahead. The first is liquidity; since May 24, it's like a faucet has been turned off, and the daily trading volume has become ghostly. The second is that the main force has long finished unloading; after May 22, large holders have basically run away by 85%. Don't expect them to lift the market.
The third issue is the soaring long-short ratio. After May 31, more and more people are bullish, yet the market feels increasingly suffocated. This is a typical case where the market can't go up and no one wants to short.
Furthermore, the situation with ETH is also not optimistic; the main contracts have already run out around 2700. However, a large number of institutions have increased their holdings in spot, making the market look strong, but in reality, it's a false prosperity that could be dragged down by Bitcoin at any moment.
So why am I pessimistic about the market in July and August? It's simple—don't expect interest rate cuts just yet. If they really do cut, it may actually be the last chance to enter a golden pit. No one wants to push a cart full of dead longs uphill before a rise; it's just too heavy!
In fact, most of the time, Bitcoin follows the same script, yet some still step in. When it truly hits the bottom, all you hear is cursing; no one dares to buy, and no one is optimistic. However, when you look back at it, it was only two months since 76K. Now, don't you feel like thinking, 'Wow, I should have bought back then'?
Advisor looks at the trend:
Resistance level reference:
Second resistance level: 106800
First resistance level: 106000
Support level reference:
Second support level: 104000
First support level: 102900
Today's suggestion:
Before yesterday's close, I focused on the 200-day moving average and the rising trend line at the 4-hour level. Although a short-term rebound is visible in the current range, it still cannot break through the downward trend line, leading to a gradual increase in bearish sentiment.
Given that bearish sentiments are currently stronger than before, it is more prudent to wait for directional confirmation at the end of the triangular convergence before considering entry. If the initial target was to hold above 106K to maintain a bullish outlook, it should now be adjusted down to 105K before considering entry.
Currently, the first resistance around 106K has evolved into a strong pressure level. Unless overall risk assets begin to warm up or show significant upward momentum, it will be difficult to break through in the short term. During this phase, we should still focus on short-term adjustments.
If the 200-day moving average and the rising trend line at the 4-hour level can hold, perhaps a small-scale rebound can be seen, but such a rebound is unlikely to form a substantial breakthrough. Be vigilant of profit-taking and emotional selling that may occur during consolidation; it is advisable to quickly take profits with a short-term approach.
If the price breaks below the first support at 104K, emotional selling may accelerate the decline, opening up space down to the second support at 102.9K. Currently, we are at the end of a triangular convergence, and the direction is still unclear; it is advisable to wait and observe before entering the market.
Although the 200-day moving average at the 4-hour level can serve as a stop-loss and take-profit reference, if no significant lower shadow candlestick pattern forms at the 200-day moving average, one should be wary of the potential for further declines. Short-term operations are advisable.
6.5 Advisor's wave strategy:
Long entry reference: long in batches within the range of 102900-104000, target: 106000-106800
Short entry reference: short in batches within the range of 106000-106800, target: 104000-102900
If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than making hasty conclusions after watching a few market movements. This market is filled with performers—today they screenshot long positions, and tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they're 'catching tops and bottoms every time,' but in reality, it's all hindsight. Bloggers worth following have consistent trading logic that stands the test of scrutiny, not just jumping in when the market moves. Don't be blinded by exaggerated data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are needed to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!
