Hot topics of Master Chat:
Last night, the US stock market soared, and the Nasdaq and S&P were both hitting key resistances, and it seemed that the bull market was about to begin. But looking at the big cake, it plunged after the closing, and the fall was so sharp that it did not give the US stock market any face. This divergence is awkward no matter how you look at it. What is the problem?
The master thinks that the first possibility is that the U.S. stock market is still absolutely attractive at present, with tariffs being eased and liquidity being limited, and all funds are heading there. To put it bluntly, there is only so much money in the market, and if the U.S. stock market is going to turn around, the cryptocurrency market will naturally lose its popularity and funds.
The second possibility is more heartbreaking. There is really nothing new in the cryptocurrency circle recently, and there is not even a good narrative. They don’t even know where they are going, and the stories they tell are still stuck in a few months ago. This momentum and growth are really hard to describe in words, and it can’t be done with words or air.
Looking at the overall environment, in June, the US Treasury bonds were replaced with new and old bonds, and the market liquidity was directly sucked away by the Federal Reserve. This is no joke, even if there is no negative news on the surface.
But this kind of blood-sucking fund transfer is enough to make the big cake powerless. Once the key position cannot be broken through and the non-agricultural data does not make any progress, it is absolutely likely that it will fall back to the daily support.
Back to the bitcoin market, the comparison between the contract market today and yesterday shows the clues at a glance. First, there are still a lot of short liquidation areas below 108k, but there are fewer long orders around 102k. This shows that the pull below is not strong, and the air force is dense above.
Second, the overall decline in funding rates indicates that shorts have begun to enter the market. In other words, the current market is no longer supported by longs alone, but shorts have also joined in, and the price seems to be pulled by both ends and may go up and down at any time.
In plain words, the current market is very sensitive. Either it will continue to fluctuate upward and slowly clear out the shorts below 108k. Or once the long structure is broken and the low point is created, it will directly dive down and hit the long liquidation area below. It may be a big negative line.
Although the biggest positive for the market right now is that there is no negative news, don't think that it is stable. The market is too sensitive to sentiment, liquidity and policy, and the strength of the bulls is the key. If there is no surprise in the non-agricultural data on Friday, don't blame it for falling again.
Master looks at the trend:
Resistance level reference:
Second resistance level: 108700
First resistance level: 106800
Support level reference:
Second support level: 104800
First support level: 103300
Today's suggestion:
Although Bitcoin once broke through 106K yesterday, it quickly fell back to 105K and failed to continue to rise. It is still fluctuating sideways in the range. From a technical point of view, a sideways range has been formed. 103.3K-104.8K can be used as short-term support, and the long position can be maintained; at the same time, the trend of the 200-day moving average can be paid attention to.
The first resistance level is the previous high point formed recently. If it can rebound and cover around 106.3K with volume, the probability of looking at the second resistance level of 108.7K will greatly increase.
In the short term, as long as the 104.3K-104.8K range can be maintained, the long position can be maintained. The key is whether the short-term upward trend line can stand firm. Once a pullback occurs, you can seize the opportunity to enter the market near this range.
If there is a rapid decline, the area below must be maintained at 103.3K-103.5K. At the same time, pay attention to the coordination of the 200-day moving average and trading volume. If you want to intervene in the short term, you can control the average cost of opening a position at a favorable position.
6.4 Master band pre-embedded:
Long entry reference: 101500-103300 range, multiple longs Target: 104800-106800
Short entry reference: 106800-107600 range short in batches Target: 104800-103300
If you really want to learn something from a blogger, you have to keep paying attention, rather than jumping to conclusions after watching the market a few times. This market is full of performers. They take screenshots of long orders today and summarize short orders tomorrow. It seems that they "catch the top and the bottom every time", but in fact, it is all hindsight. The trading logic of bloggers who are really worth paying attention to must be consistent, self-consistent and can withstand scrutiny, rather than jumping into the ring when the market moves. Don't be blinded by exaggerated data and out-of-section screenshots. Only long-term observation and in-depth understanding can distinguish who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!
