AI Summary:
According to BlockBeats, QCP’s recent market report reveals an unexpected rise in employment, which has boosted risk appetite ahead of the key non-farm payroll data set to be released Friday. The S&P 500 is approaching the important psychological milestone of 6000 points. Stable non-farm payroll figures are expected to support the Federal Reserve’s message of a resilient labor market, reinforcing expectations that interest rates will remain steady.
On the trade front, investors are adopting a cautious approach ahead of upcoming U.S.-China negotiations. Bitcoin’s near-term volatility has eased, with spot prices holding steady around the familiar $105,000 level. One-month implied volatility has dipped below 40, signaling reduced short-term uncertainty. Bitcoin continues to trade within a range, with light market positioning and normalized skew suggesting a lack of clear directional bias. Since May, the volatility curve has flattened from mid- to long-term maturities, mirroring declines in the VIX index and prompting some opportunistic long volatility positions. Of note, September call options with a $130,000 strike were bought at 47 volatility, hinting at localized bullish interest in Q3.
Looking ahead, the third quarter may bring increased challenges. Tariff-related effects could start to impact macroeconomic data, while fiscal uncertainties tied to the “Build Back Better Act” and the U.S. debt ceiling may cause headline-driven volatility. Without strong catalysts, Bitcoin is unlikely to break decisively out of its current trading range.
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