As Bitcoin trades near $105,857, economist and author of The Bitcoin Standard, Saifedean Ammous, issued a caution on the Coin Stories podcast, suggesting that Bitcoin might be nearing the peak of its current bull market cycle.
Ammous emphasized that despite growing institutional adoption and corporate treasury investments, Bitcoin remains vulnerable to steep corrections, with a potential drop of up to 80% still on the table. “Bitcoin has experienced declines of 70% to 80% before, and it can happen again,” he warned, urging companies to reassess their Bitcoin exposure if they cannot weather such a downturn.
He noted that Bitcoin’s market cycle peaks tend to happen within 12 to 18 months after a halving event. Since bottoming at $15,000, BTC has surged over 600%, recently hitting highs close to $109,000.
This caution comes amid accelerating corporate Bitcoin accumulation. Paris-based Blockchain Group purchased $68 million in BTC this week, increasing its holdings to nearly 1,500 BTC. Meanwhile, Metaplanet boosted its Bitcoin stash by 1,088 BTC at an average price of $108,400, now holding over 8,888 BTC and ranking as the eighth-largest corporate BTC owner.
Supporting Ammous’ concerns, Bitcoin advocate Max Keiser questioned whether newcomers adopting “Bitcoin treasury strategies” will hold their positions through extended bear markets. He contrasted them with Michael Saylor’s approach, which has historically maintained holdings without selling during downturns.
Despite these warnings, bullish predictions remain strong, with many analysts still eyeing Bitcoin prices around $200,000 for 2025.
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