Author: ??????
Translated by: Tim, PANews
Everyone believes that $140,000 is the next target, but things will not develop as such.
After studying all historical scenarios and market data, why do I think Bitcoin is about to see a slight decline?
Is the golden cross a blessing or a curse?
The golden cross refers to the technical indicator pattern that occurs when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average, which is generally seen as a buy signal or bullish indicator in all technical analysis.
But what if I tell you that the situation is not that simple, and a golden cross might actually lead to a crash?
Let me explain to everyone.
Yes, fundamentally speaking, the appearance of the golden cross indicates that short-term momentum is surpassing long-term momentum (usually presenting a bullish trend).
However, historical data shows that every time a golden cross forms, Bitcoin always follows with a 10% drop, after which it will strongly rebound and set a new historical high.
Let's delve into specific cases:
In February 2021, after Bitcoin's 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average, it fell 10% within 7 days.
In March 2024, after Bitcoin plummeted 11%, it violently surged to new highs.
It has been proven that the appearance of a golden cross is merely the ultimate washout tactic used by the main forces before a rise, to shake off floating capital (weak hands and retail investors), thus driving a real price breakout.
Everything suddenly makes sense; it was this breakout that triggered a wave of large-scale capital chasing.
Those who exited the market due to FOMO re-enter, further fueling a more vigorous uptrend.
This is the mechanism of the golden cross pattern.
This week, Bitcoin has seen a pullback of about 8%, which is in line with past trends. A rebound has already occurred, indicating strong buying interest around the $104,000 to $105,000 range.
On the other hand, it is evident that the upward momentum above $110,000 has already exhausted.
(This will lead to the phenomenon of 'news overconsumption,' where positive news does not trigger any reaction)
What will the subsequent trend be?
If we can hold above $105,000 (which we are likely to achieve), it will point straight to the $150,000 mark, repeating the golden cross pattern trend.
If it breaks below the $100,000 threshold, a slight pullback to the $90,000 to $95,000 range is expected.
If you don't have a position yet, now is a good opportunity to enter; I am strongly bullish in the short term.
But at the same time, I am in a more risk-averse state: holding only strong blue-chip coins like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and selectively investing in a few altcoins with investment potential, such as Cookie, W, and IOTA.
If you already have a position that makes you unsure whether to sell or add to your position, please stick to your strategy.
