On Monday, the cryptocurrency market remained relatively stable, with no significant interference from Trump-related news, and overall sentiment remained stable. On Tuesday, after BTC retraced to the 30-day moving average support of 104k, it suddenly surged above 106k, currently pulling back to 105k.
Bitcoin continues in a range-bound pattern, currently fluctuating between $103,055 and $107,100, close to previous highs. This round of upward movement is accompanied by an increase in open interest and rising funding rates, showing that short-term futures market sentiment has somewhat improved. The shorts who previously went short have suffered heavy losses, while the confidence of longs who were frustrated last week is gradually recovering. However, it is still a typical range-bound market.
There is a significant amount of long liquidity below $103,000, which can be seen on the right side of the chart. If the funding rate does not start to turn positive, I would actually be quite nervous for the bears...
Going long last night was a bet on this possibility, thankfully the bears finally behaved, so I closed the short-term long position for profit and will continue to watch! The shorts are not overly aggressive, while some longs are getting a bit too confident.
Bitcoin (BTC)
Bitcoin (BTC) maintains a range-bound trend, currently fluctuating between $103,055 and $107,100, close to previous highs. The trading strategy shared on Sunday remains effective and has not yet been negated by market trends.
In the short term, the likelihood of BTC breaking above $120,000 or higher ($130,000 to $150,000) is low. Pay attention to support levels at 103,233, 102,403, and 98,500, with resistance levels tentatively set at 107,100 and 110,000. The current critical points are 103,055 and 107,100, forming the upper and lower bounds of the range.
The market has not experienced the expected drop below $100,000; those who went short last night without considering patterns and indicators have been caught out!
Ethereum (ETH)
Ethereum has rebounded to $2,649 today. The article yesterday (Bitcoin's comeback, a $2,000 rebound targeting 105K, ETH accurately bottoming out! How will $B, GASS lead the new bull market? How to position after the altcoin crash?) already indicated that $2,420 is a key support, and short-term longs can gain a guaranteed 10 points.
If BTC maintains a fluctuating upward trend without significant bearish news, ETH is expected to further challenge the resistance range of $2,750 to $2,850, providing new trading opportunities for investors.
However, operations need to be cautious, and it is recommended to set stop-loss orders to effectively control risks. Resistance levels above are 2,620, 2,648, 2,682, and support levels below are 2,586, 2,550, 2,500. If it falls below 2,557 on the 4-hour level, the next target looks towards 2,503 to 2,476.
Relying on news to drive prices is ultimately fleeting; if the sentiment does not follow, it will naturally return. Those who chase the price up will be sharply harvested!
Observation of the altcoin market
Altcoin performance is highly dependent on ETH trends. If ETH breaks through and stabilizes above $2,850, some altcoins may see a rebound. For example, SOL, DOGE, XRP, PEPE, etc., have shown some recovery.
Among them, PEPE has performed particularly well due to Musk's retweet and Trump-related news, becoming a preferred target for positioning after the pullback.
Given the overall weak market, the rise of altcoins may be limited. Combining on-chain data and the macroeconomic environment, the expectation for interest rate cuts is distant, and market uncertainty is high; the current trend resembles a 'tail-end trend.' It is recommended that short-term traders can enter and exit quickly while strictly controlling risks.
Today's market highlights
1. The impact of holiday pullbacks and BTC trends have caused some investors to be liquidated, with James' on-chain operations almost leading to a liquidation. Altcoins like $WCT have experienced a sharp drop due to poor trading practices, so careful selection of targets is advised.
2. On-chain projects like Labubu and Launchcoin have seen significant declines, and the founder of Believe has promised to introduce anti-fraud measures within 48 hours.
3. CEX rebounds, centralized exchange tokens follow the market rebound, but sustainability depends on BTC performance. As we approach Q3/Q4, the market may welcome cyclical trends.
4. James almost faced liquidation last night, and on-chain operations have drawn attention; investors need to be wary of similar high-risk behaviors.
5. The strategy plans to issue 2.5 million shares of STRD preferred stock for purchasing BTC and operations, which is worth paying attention to.
Today's recommendation: $GALA
Reason: It is currently moving in a box consolidation. If it breaks out of the box consolidation range, the height of the box will be the target price after the breakout—0.409. It may encounter pressure at 0.395 (yellow dashed line), so one should exit before reaching this position. Additionally, there is a divergence at the RSI bottom which can be referenced for possible reversal.
Entry Price: 0.021
Stop-loss Price: 0.018
Target Price: 0.409
Expected Increase: 1847%
