Advisor discusses hot topics:
First, let's talk about the rebound of Bitcoin from midnight to 9 AM. To be honest, it doesn't really seem like the bulls suddenly became aggressive; rather, it looks like the bears jumped into the pit themselves. The funding rate not only didn't drop but slightly rebounded, indicating that there aren't many new shorts willing to go all-in in the market.
The trend of Bitcoin in these days shows that each small rebound is slightly higher than the previous peak; when the bears chase, they get slapped in the face, and the main force relies on this indecisive rhythm to gradually pressure floating short positions to the rooftop. However, this structure is also the most frustrating.
Looking again at 103k, it was originally considered a support zone, but now liquidity has completed, turning it into a full-fledged bull liquidity base. In layman's terms, as soon as the price drops, there are bulls waiting to step in below. Plenty of volume ensures that the main forces can clear out positions.
Looking past the drop in the morning, a short-term rebound could still push to 106.8k; with good news, it might reach a maximum of 108k, but don't be too optimistic.
There are a bunch of liquidity gaps sitting above, any of which could be the ceiling. Once the price is blocked by these positions, it will be the bulls getting cleared out next.
So currently, my personal expectation is to first have a small rebound, confirm a pullback at the lower edge, and then enter a period of sideways consolidation to allow the bears to add positions, so that the main force can continue to push up.
But what if it accidentally breaks to a new low? That would be like throwing a match into an oil drum, directly triggering a bull liquidation. The target could potentially reach 100k, or even pierce through 101k to form a long lower shadow.
By the way, just a reminder, this week's important information is all during the late night. Especially early Thursday and Friday, it's easy to see a spike down. So don't play dead before sleeping; tighten up your positions.
After all, where in the market is there a way for so many novices and retail investors to make money easily? The meaning of volatility is to gradually take away the profits that seemed simple and easy to earn before. Always remember one thing: what you think is the bottom may just be a pit dug by others.
Advisor watches the trend:
Resistance level reference:
Second resistance level: 107800
First resistance level: 106400
Support level reference:
Second support level: 104800
First support level: 103400
Today's suggestion:
Bitcoin is still operating along the 200-day moving average on the 4-hour level, and after failing to stabilize above 106K, it has experienced a certain degree of pullback. Because there was a large bullish candle previously, the rebound perspective can still be maintained in the short term.
Currently, the 106K position has formed strong resistance, and the price is testing this position during the upward trend. At this stage, the price is still supported by the 20-day moving average, and there is hope for continued upward movement in the short term. When the price reaches the upper resistance zone, consider taking profits in batches in the short term.
The previous low and high range, which is the first support at 104.8K, has been reclaimed, so it can be considered an important short-term support. Near this position, the price may undergo a small pullback.
The premise for maintaining a bullish trend is that the price should preferably not return to the second support level of 103.4K. Before approaching the second support level, first monitor whether the upward trend line can continue to stabilize the price, and then decide whether to enter the market or stop loss.
6.3 Advisor's swing trading setup:
Long entry position reference: not currently applicable
Short entry position reference: short in batches in the range of 106400-107800, target: 104800-103400
If you genuinely want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than jumping to conclusions after watching the market a few times. This market is filled with performers; today they show long positions, tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they catch tops and bottoms every time, but in reality, they are just pointing out what has already happened. A truly worth-watching blogger must have a consistent, coherent trading logic that can withstand scrutiny, rather than only reacting when the market moves. Don’t be blinded by exaggerated data and fragmented screenshots; only through long-term observation and deep understanding can you distinguish between thinkers and dream makers!
