Current Scene $ETH :
* Faces strong resistance at 2,545 (recent peak and the 99-day moving average). This level is crucial.
* The MACD indicator is clearly positive: the DIF line (7.05) is above the DEA (0.92) and the histogram (6.14) is expanding, indicating real upward momentum.
* The only risk: the RSI indicator is at 68, which is close to the overbought area (70+). If the price touches 2,545 and the RSI reaches 70, a downward reaction is expected.
* Likely scenario (60%): A breakout at 2,545.5 with high trading volume will lead to a rise towards 2,565 (today's peak) then 2,580.
* Alternative scenario (40%): Failure to break 2,545 and breaking 2,517 (immediate support) will cause a correction to 2,488 or even 2,472 (24-hour low).
* Buy: Only at support 2,517-2,520 if accompanied by a rebound and confirmation from MACD (stop loss at 2,488).
* Sell or short entry: At 2,545-2,546 if RSI rises above 70 (stop loss at 2,552).
* Avoid: Long positions at resistance 2,545 without confirmation of the breakout.
* Safe strategy:
* Buy in batches at the rebound from 2,520, taking profits at 2,565.
* If the price breaks 2,545 while RSI stays below 70, follow the momentum upward.
* Current momentum is positive, but the RSI overbought condition is a factor to be managed carefully.
The compass points upward, but under conditions. Focus on the level 2,545 (key to the upward movement) and 2,517 (key to the downward movement).