The market is currently testing a vital resistance level at 660-664, a zone akin to a wall requiring genuine buying power to breach. The 99-period Moving Average (660.09) stands as a guard here.
Strong support lies at 650-652, bolstered by the convergence of shorter moving averages (MA7 and MA25) – a break below this level would open the door for a decline.
Momentum is positive (+1% with a trading volume of 89 million), but it's insufficient to break the daily high (664.24).
Most Likely Scenario (55%) - Restricted Ascent:
The pair will target 664 in the coming hours, but I anticipate an initial rejection at 660.
If volume holds above 100 million USDT on the second test – we will see a break towards 670-678.
My advice: Buy on the rebound from 652-655 (stop-loss 649).
Medium Scenario (35%) - Sideways Journey:
The market will remain stuck between 652-660 for an additional day. This is an accumulation strategy by "whales."
The key: Decreasing volume with shrinking candles. Here, I trade with a dense strategy: Sell at 658+ and buy at 653.
Weak Scenario (10%) - Sudden Correction:
A break below 650 would be an alarm bell. The decline will accelerate towards 645 and then 637.5 if accompanied by an increase in volume.
My warning: Do not sell unless you see a closing candle below 649 with increasing volume.
A final piece of heartfelt advice
Do not risk more than 2% of your capital in this critical area.
. This is a technical market analysis and not financial advice.
