Altseason History: 2017 & 2021
🟢 2017 Altseason
- BTC Dominance (BTC.D) dropped hard from ~95% (start of year) to ~35% by Jan 2018.
- ETH/BTC went up from 0.02 to ~0.12 BTC mid-2017.
- Altcoins like ETH, XRP, ADA, NEO, LTC pumped 10–100x.
- Main altseason: May 2017 – Jan 2018.
🟢 2021 Altseason
- BTC.D down from ~70% to ~40% by May 2021.
- ETH/BTC up from 0.025 to 0.08 BTC.
-Altcoins exploded w/ DeFi, NFT, memecoins (DOGE, SHIBA).
- Main altseason: Jan – May 2021.
Mini altseason 11/2024 – 1/2025: Why not the top yet?
✅ Signs of mini altseason:
- BTC hit 100K ATH then pulled back to 75K.
- Many altcoins up 3–10x.
- ETH/BTC up 0.05 → 0.065 BTC.
- BTC.D down slightly 60% → 52%, but not as much as past cycles.
❌ Why not main altseason tho:
-BTC.D still above 50%, no deep drop like before.
- Retail investors not FOMOing hard yet.
- Ecosystems like SOL, ARB, BLAST, MEME still chillin, accumulating.
Prediction: Max altseason maybe mid-2025
- BTC steady above 100K: if BTC sideways 100K–110K, money might flow into altcoins.
- ETH/BTC pumps hard: ETH leads = altseason poppin.
- Retail FOMO incoming: small investors flooding altcoins.
- Ecosystems like SOL, ARB, BLAST, MEME start runnin strong.
⸻
Conclusion & Strategy (1)
🛣️ We at crossroads rn — gotta think smart, not emotional:
- 60% chance mini altseason (11/24–1/25) nearly done, money moving out alt → BTC or stable.
- 40% chance it’s just warmup, and a max altseason can still blow up if BTC stable + ETH pumps.
Action plan
🔸 If u lean 60% (mini altseason ending):
- Spot: Take profits on pumped altcoins. Don’t FOMO chasing pumps.
- Futures: Avoid long alt in high zones, only trade setups (break or retest).
- Watch BTC.D & ETH/BTC: If BTC.D flips up → alt money out → alt drop warning.
🔹 If u lean 40% (max altseason starting):
- Spot: DCA into well-accumulated altcoins that ain’t pumped much (meme, infra, L2).
- Futures: Focus on short-term longs w/ strict risk mgmt, no all-in.
- Watch ETH & SOL: If ETH breaks 0.07 BTC & BTC.D keeps dropping → max altseason likely.
Key indicators to watch
- BTC Dominance (BTC.D)
- ETH/BTC ratio
- On-chain volume ETH/SOL/MEME
- Total market cap ex-BTC (TOTAL2)
