#PCE数据来袭 Explodes! Federal Reserve PCE Data Ignites the Crypto Market: Bitcoin Rises and Falls, Long and Short Battle Heats Up!
On May 30th, Beijing Time at 20:30, the U.S. April Core PCE Price Index rose 2.5% year-on-year, significantly down from 2.7% in March.
Unexpected Plot After the Data Release
Trump's Policy Double-Edged Sword: Although the Trump Media Group announced a $3 billion Bitcoin purchase plan, Nuveen predicts that its tariff policy could push the Core PCE up to 2.0%, forcing the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts, and the market is skeptical about the effectiveness of the policy implementation.
History and Variables: How Does PCE Define Trends?
In March 2024, the Core PCE year-on-year dropped to 2.6%, and Bitcoin surged 15% the next day; after the data release in January 2025, Bitcoin initially fell before rising to break $85,000. Following this data release, Bitcoin's market value exceeded $8.8 trillion, but it only increased by 90% from the low in 2024, indicating that the market has partly digested the logic of "PCE Cooling = Bull Market."
Hidden Variables: Trump's "Secret Weapon"
The Trump Media Group's $3 billion cryptocurrency purchase plan has entered a substantive phase, but Nuveen predicts that if tariffs are fully implemented, the Core PCE could rise to 2.0%, forcing the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts. Additionally, on-chain data shows that long-term holders (LTH) are gradually reducing their Bitcoin holdings, with holdings dropping to 12.45 million coins, the lowest since July 2022, increasing market liquidity risk.
Conclusion: The PCE data on May 30 did not ignite the bull market as expected, but instead exposed the market's concerns about policy uncertainty. Whether Bitcoin can stabilize above $105,000 depends on the Federal Reserve's policy statements and the progress of Trump's cryptocurrency purchase plan.
Do you think Bitcoin will drop below $100,000? Let's discuss in the comments! Share with your crypto friends, like and follow for further market updates!
