The Dragon Boat Festival holiday was a complete "explosion"! Under the violent fluctuations, 252,797 people were liquidated, and the amount of liquidation was nearly 5 billion! I have always said that when the market is good, don't be impulsive, and when the market is bad, don't panic.
At this juncture, bulls should not dream of a big rise, and bears should not think of a sharp drop. The key is to control positions, keep a stable mentality, and keep a close eye on the actions of large investors. Try with a light position, don't fight too much, keep your bullets, there will be many opportunities later!
The operational ideas in the past few days are also very clear. Yesterday’s article (5 billion liquidation! The main players are withdrawing from the currency circle. Has Bitcoin jumped? Will it fall again? $OG and $ORCA are surging against the trend! How to deal with the plummeting market?) also said that the recent long position is around 103,000, and those who placed orders at this position have already made a profit of 1,000 points.
Yesterday's PCE data was in line with expectations, and the market should have stabilized. Although the fluctuation range expanded, it was not exaggerated. However, BTC's intraday fluctuation was as high as $8,000, which can be called "stimulating". The main reason is the uncertainty brought by Trump, whose "big mouth" effect has repeatedly caused market turmoil.
Event-driven and market-responsive
At nearly midnight last night, the market sentiment was relatively stable. Although Trump accused the "Eastern University" of violating the agreement, the market did not show obvious fluctuations. In addition, he raised $2.44 billion to buy BTC, and the market was optimistic for a while. However, in the early morning, Trump suddenly announced sanctions, and the S&P 500 and BTC fell simultaneously, and BTC fell below the 104 support level.
At 6 a.m., he brought up the topic of tariffs again, and uncertainty rose again. The U.S. stock market was closed, and BTC was under pressure alone and continued to fluctuate downward.
At present, the uncertainty of tariff policies remains high, and with low liquidity on weekends, volatility may be further amplified. It is recommended to pay close attention to the news from tonight to Monday. The current price of BTC is in the 102-103 range, close to the lower edge of the previous fluctuation range, and is expected to stabilize in the short term. Expect positive news on the weekend.
Ethereum (ETH), Bitcoin (BTC) Analysis
BTC fell below $2,600 as expected, but its performance was slightly stronger than expected, which is a structural correction. It is not ruled out that it may break down in case of an emergency. Although Ethereum (ETH) is slightly stronger in the decline, it cannot be hastily judged that it has strengthened.
If ETH remains strong after BTC adjustment, you can consider switching from "long BTC, short ETH" to "long ETH, short SOL" to capture the opportunity of ETH/BTC exchange rate rebound. The reasons are as follows:
1. ETH has strong control capabilities:
The recent rise shows that the power behind ETH has outstanding control capabilities, high market consistency, and rapid response.
2. ETH/BTC exchange rate is low:
The current exchange rate is close to historical lows, with the last time it was below 0.02 being in 2019.
3. ETH pledge ETF prospects:
The relevant ETF approval is almost passed, which is good for the ETH ecosystem.
Market outlook strategies and suggestions
The current market liquidity is limited, so please be cautious. The following suggestions are made:
1. Strong Chain and Narrative Exposure:
Some funds continue to invest in hot spots such as the BNB chain and AI narratives (such as the Kaito system) to take advantage of local FOMO sentiment and capital accumulation opportunities.
2. Steady defensive strategy:
Most funds choose stable interest-bearing assets (such as BTC, BNB, USDT), participate in CEX benefits, on-chain new listings, deposit interest, etc., pursue passive income and resist market fluctuations.
3 Low market value potential targets:
A small portion of funds are deployed in low-market-cap potential coins, such as $Candle, $Labubu, $King and high-quality targets on the BNB chain, to gain high returns. For narratives such as RWA and GameFi, please hold off on intervening until market certainty increases or prices are better.
4. Ambush unissued projects:
Through "mouth digging" and capital digging, we can deeply participate in the TGE of high-quality projects and obtain cash flow benefits. The effect of traditional wool-pulling methods has weakened, and we need to adapt to new forms.
Suggestions on altcoin operations
Many people ask whether to cover their positions in altcoins. Here are some suggestions:
Only consider covering a position when the right pattern appears near the previous low, don't just look at the price. If you are suppressed after breaking through with large volume, you should leave the market decisively. If the previous low is broken with large volume, it may usher in a new low and a large retracement. It is not worth fighting against the trend.
The current market is full of uncertainty. It is recommended to reduce contract operations, pay attention to trend changes, and flexibly adjust positions. BTC may stabilize in the 102-103 range in the short term, and the ETH ecosystem deserves attention. Keep a steady mind and keep your bullets, the next wave of opportunities is just ahead!
