Dogecoin is at a critical technical pivot point at the beginning of June, and the next wave of movement may be determined by a narrow support band. Analysts Kevin (Kev_Capital_TA) and Guangdong Cat (cantonmeow) have conducted in-depth analysis on this.
Critical moment for Dogecoin, price at $0.19.
Kevin's analysis focuses on the range of $0.184 to $0.190. This area is supported by the 50% Fibonacci retracement level (at $0.2597) from the rise on May 11, and is reinforced by the 0.618-0.65 retracement levels ($0.1976 and $0.2005).
Friday's long bullish candlestick broke through the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo conversion line, stopping near the 0.50 fib level, marking the first test of the new bottom. If the daily close falls below this line, it will touch the 0.382 level ($0.1694) and may further decline towards the multi-year downward trend line (currently trending towards $0.14). If the price stabilizes and rises within the range, it may confirm the bottom and move towards the 0.703 extension level ($0.2117).
Guangdong Cat points out that this range corresponds to the head and shoulders pattern neck line ($0.187 to $0.194), with the March low as the left shoulder, the early April high as the head, and the early May high as the right shoulder. After the neck line was broken on May 9, the price retested this area. Holding above the neck line will maintain the bullish pattern, while breaking below will invalidate the pattern, favoring the bears.
The monthly chart of Guangdong Cat shows that Dogecoin has closed within the range of $0.16 to $0.42 for seven consecutive times, presenting a compression trend. This pattern appears in a long-term bullish trend, defined by the highs in May and November 2024 and the lows in August 2024 and April 2025.
Statistics indicate that the breakthrough amplitude after such compression is typically around 26 cents, with $0.16 and $0.42 as the consolidation boundaries. If buyers hold above the neck line and break through $0.20, $0.2117 will be the first target, followed by the range of $0.25 to $0.26. If this range is broken, the monthly pullback may end, with $0.29 becoming the next target.
Market focus is concentrated on the narrow range of $0.184 to $0.190, where the head and shoulders neck line intersects with key Fibonacci levels. Dogecoin's short-term fate will depend on the performance in this range over the next few days. As of the time of writing, DOGE is trading at $0.19211.
