I really woke up and felt like the sky was falling! Everything is falling, falling, falling, falling...
1. Market status: Broad pullback, BTC drops below $105,000
- BTC leads the decline, altcoins follow: Bitcoin briefly dropped below $105,000 today, with a 24-hour decline of 3%. Major cryptocurrencies like ETH, SOL, and DOGE generally saw declines of 5%-10%.
- Liquidation wave intensifies: In the past 24 hours, over 210,000 people were liquidated, amounting to $711 million, with the largest single liquidation at $12.74 million (OKX-BTC contract).
- Impact of macro factors: Repeated U.S. tariff policies, inflation data falling short of expectations, and unclear economic prospects have led to increased market risk aversion, with funds flowing into stablecoins (USDT premium rising).
2. Analysis of decline reasons
- Short-term profit-taking: BTC just reached a new high of $110,000 last week, and some institutions and large holders chose to cash out at high levels.
- Policy uncertainty: The U.S. GENIUS stablecoin bill is advancing, and the market is concerned that tightened regulations may affect liquidity.
- Market sentiment is overheated: Recently, the inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs has slowed, and the proportion of long positions in the derivatives market is too high (OKX perpetual contract long positions at 68%), making it prone to a pullback.
- Macroeconomic disturbances: Gold fell simultaneously (spot gold down 1%), indicating market concerns about Federal Reserve policies and global trade situations.
3. Key support and resistance levels
- BTC short-term support: $95,000 (if it falls below, it may further pull back to $88,000).
- ETH key level: $2,200 (if it falls below this, it may test $2,000).
- Altcoin risks: MEME coins (like PEPE, BONK) have recently plummeted over 50%, with funds still withdrawing from high-leverage coins.
4. Investment advice
✅ Short-term strategy (1-2 weeks)
- Mainly wait and see: Wait for BTC to stabilize above $100,000 or pull back to the $95,000 support level before gradually building positions.
- Avoid high leverage: The current market is highly volatile, and the risk of contract liquidation is extremely high. It is recommended to keep leverage ≤ 3 times or only trade spot.
- Pay attention to stablecoin premiums: When the USDT/USDC premium rises, it is often a signal to buy the dip.
✅ Medium to long-term layout (1-3 months)
- BTC/ETH dollar-cost averaging: If it pulls back to below $95,000/$2,000, gradual dollar-cost averaging can be considered, with year-end targets still looking at $180,000-$200,000 (institutional forecasts).
- Pay attention to RWA and AI sectors: Compliance-strong real asset tokenization (like Ondo) and AI + blockchain projects (like FET) may become the next hot topics.
- Be wary of regulatory risks: If the GENIUS Act is implemented, it may benefit compliant stablecoins (USDC, USDT) but negatively affect anonymous coins.
✅ Hedging operations
- Allocate some gold or cash: If the market continues to deteriorate, it can hedge some risks.
- Avoid chasing highs and cutting losses: MEME coins and new coins with high FDV (like recently listed projects) have extremely high short-term risks. Follow the "three don't touch principles" (don't touch coins with over 500% increase, new coins without KYC, and high leverage positions).
5. Summary
The current market is in an adjustment phase, but the long-term bullish logic remains unchanged (institutional buying, ETF fund inflows, halving effect).
Key strategy: Control positions, patiently wait for certain opportunities, and avoid emotional trading.
If BTC stabilizes above $105,000, it may be seen as a short-term stability signal; if it falls below $95,000, caution is needed.
