💥 1. Nature of the correction: Violent washout under triple strangulation
High leverage chain liquidation
Whale's 40x short position triggers programmatic selling, resulting in $1.38 billion liquidation across the network in 24 hours, forming a 'downward → liquidation → accelerated downturn' death spiral.
BTC perpetual contract open interest reaches 218,000, with long positions accounting for 68%, retail consistency bullish becoming a contrary indicator.
Macroeconomic black swan strikes
US imposes 15% cryptocurrency tariff: directly impacts altcoin financing costs, funds panic withdraw to stablecoins (USDT premium rate skyrockets to 5.1%).
Trump's tariff policy (up to 49%): triggers global trade war panic, correlation between BTC and US stocks surges (weekly correlation coefficient 0.85).
Sector rotation and bubble squeeze
MEME coin collapse: Hippo coin (HIPPO) crashes 78% in a single day, fundamental-less coins become 'naked swimmers' in the tide of emotion retreat.
Layer 2 leads the decline: ARB, OP and other leading L2 tokens drop over 11%, funds withdraw to cyclical assets (such as RWA sector $PENDLE).
📉 2. Deeper impacts: Market structure reshaping and emotional divergence
Funds seek refuge:
Asset class current state and fund movements
BTC/ETH BTC falls below $105,000, ETH loses $3,800, institutions accumulate on dips (ETF weekly net inflow of $320 million)
Altcoins average decline exceeds 15%, funds withdraw towards BTC (dominance rises to 63.89%)
Cyclical sector RWA, SocialFi rises against the trend, becomes a new safe haven ($TON weekly increase of 12%)
On-chain signals reveal the truth:
Fear and greed index drops to 25 (new six-month low), but whale addresses increase holdings by 61 in 30 days (largest increase this year), chips remain stable.
Continuous net outflow from exchanges: 15,700 BTC withdrawn last week, circulating supply dropped to 2.2 million, accumulation trend remains unbroken.
💎 3. Value support: Is the foundation of the bull market still there?
Institutional cost line becomes an iron bottom
MicroStrategy and 75 other institutions hold 696,000 BTC, average cost $67,458, current price still in profit.
US state governments (New Hampshire, Texas) legislate to allocate BTC reserves, locking in liquidity for the long term.
ETF bottoming effect strengthens
Total scale of Bitcoin spot ETF is $129.3 billion, surpassing gold ETF, BlackRock attracts $232.9 million in a single day.
Halving cycle remains effective
Historical pattern: after halving, enters the main upward wave in 12-18 months, Standard Chartered maintains a target of $120,000 by the end of 2025.
🛡 4. Survival guide for veteran investors: Bottom fishing, waiting, or fleeing?
Three types of opportunities:
Core asset regular investment: BTC below $67,000 (institutional cost line), ETH below $2,800 for phased accumulation.
Cyclical sector positioning: RWA (real asset tokenization), SocialFi (decentralized social) focus on $PENDLE, $TON.
Policy catalyst game: Trump's crypto reserve plan, Federal Reserve rate cut in September (probability 48.9%) may trigger a violent rebound.
Three major traps:
High-leverage MEME coins: over 500% increase in coins without fundamentals (reference HIPPO's 78% crash).
Non-compliant new coins: financing risk for KYC projects surges under US tariffs.
L2 chasing highs and lows: ARB, OP and other technicals have not stabilized, be cautious with flying knives.
💎 Ultimate conclusion
This round of correction is a 'violent washout' in the midst of a bull market, not the beginning of a bear market.
Trigger: Leverage liquidation + tariff black swan;
Core: Eliminate bubbles (MEME, overvalued L2), funds migrate to BTC/cyclical sectors;
Turning point signal: Focus on rising expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts + implementation of Trump's policies, those who survive the volatility will reap the next wave of main upward movement.
Data source: Glassnode, Coinglass, Standard Chartered Bank research
(Strategies vary by individual, DYOR! Share practical insights in the comments below 👇)
