1. Market Bloodbath: The Collapse of Altcoins and Ethereum's 'Counter-Trend Resilience' Today, the crypto market staged a 'black drama,' with altcoins collectively plunging, extinguishing the confidence of countless retail investors who had just ignited hope. As accounts turned green, the sentiment was on the verge of collapse. However, amidst this brutal downturn, Ethereum (ETH) stood out — while many altcoins faced declines exceeding 20%, ETH remained oscillating near the $2000 mark, even attempting to stabilize and rebound several times. This divergence of 'main chain stable, altcoins collapsing' suggests a subtle shift in the strategy of major funds: from a past approach of 'comprehensive cleanup' to 'precisely targeting altcoins while protecting the main chain's value.'

2. New Logic of Major Fund Cleaning: The Chip Game Behind Differentiated Market Trends
1. Concentrating on Clearing Altcoin Floating Chips The plummet of altcoins is not coincidental but a precise strategy targeting the psychology of retail investors. Such currencies typically have small market caps and poor liquidity, making it easy to create panic through short-term sell-offs. When retail investors panic and sell altcoins, major funds can collect chips at a lower cost while driving market funds towards mainstream coins (like BTC and ETH), creating a 'bloodsucking effect' to accumulate energy for subsequent trends.
2. Ethereum's Role as a 'Stabilizer' As the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, Ethereum embodies the core values of ecosystems like DeFi and NFTs, serving as a crucial 'base' for major funds. This anti-dip performance aims, on one hand, to maintain market confidence in mainstream coins and prevent panic from spreading throughout the market; on the other hand, it sends a signal of 'main chain safety' to retail investors, guiding funds from high-risk altcoins to low-risk mainstream coins, completing the redistribution of chips.

3. 'Emotional Limit Test' on the Eve of Market Trends
1. Bitcoin's 'Panic Switch' If Bitcoin (BTC) further retraces near $102,000, it may trigger stop-loss orders from quantitative trading and panic selling from retail investors, leading to a 'final drop' for altcoins. However, historical data shows that market bottoms often occur at 'emotional freezing points' — when retail investors are utterly desperate and media outlets collectively turn bearish, major funds quietly initiate market movements. The bear market bottom in November 2022 and the rebound starting point in June 2023 both validate this pattern.
2. Expectation Management: The 'Boiling Frog' Strategy of Major Funds Recently, the 'modest expectation' of '$100,000 - $200,000' released at the Bitcoin conference sharply contrasts with the previous 'half a million dollars' frenzy. This shift does not indicate a bearish outlook but is a deliberate strategy by major funds to lower retail investors' psychological expectations. Through a combination of 'lowering expectations + repeated oscillation,' they wear down the holding patience of retail investors. Just as Ethereum fluctuates between $1800-$3500, each seemingly 'breakout' that is followed by a retracement tests the faith of retail investors — only when the last batch of weak hands exits will the real upward wave begin.

4. Long-Term Layout Window: How to Seize 'Opportunities in Pain'
1. Bottom Fishing Logic: Downward Space and Capital Allocation From a technical perspective, Ethereum's current drop is nearing 40%, with daily-level bottom divergence signals indicating preliminary signs of a stage bottom. If it further dips to $2100 or even lower (corresponding to the support level of the 200-week moving average), it will become a golden window for long-term capital accumulation. It is recommended to adopt a 'pyramid averaging up strategy': increase positions by 20% after a 10% drop, and add 30% more if it breaks critical support, ensuring to capture the bottom while controlling risks.
2. Cash is King: The Survival Rule Through Fluctuations Regardless of how the market fluctuates, it is wise to maintain a cash reserve of 30%-50%. This not only allows you to calmly average down during a crash but also avoids being forced to sell at a loss due to being 'fully invested.' Remember: the crypto market never lacks opportunities; it lacks bullets. When others panic and sell, your cash is the sharpest weapon.

5. June Outlook: Policy Benefits and Trend Certainty From a macro perspective, June could become a turning point for the market: the progress of the SEC's approval of ETFs, the implementation of the EU's cryptocurrency regulatory framework, and the details of Hong Kong's virtual asset policies may all release significant positive news. Historical experience shows that policy drives often lead to concentrated capital inflows, especially for cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, which possess both technological fundamentals and ecological breadth, likely to initiate first under favorable conditions.

Conclusion: Holding Firm in Distress, Moving Forward Amidst Divergence The cruelty of the crypto market lies in its selection of investors in the most painful ways — the more afraid you are of volatility, the easier it is to fall before dawn; the more you chase highs and cut losses, the more you become 'nourishment' for major funds. However, from another perspective, every crash presents an opportunity for wealth redistribution: when retail investors sell in panic, smart capital is quietly positioning itself. The direction is always upward, but the process is bound to be tortuous. Instead of getting tangled in short-term fluctuations, it is better to jump out of the 'watching trap' and focus on longer cycles — when the market shifts from 'retail market' to 'institutional market,' when Ethereum's Cancun upgrade is implemented, and when the DeFi ecosystem explodes again, today's fluctuations are merely a minor episode on the path to a long bull market. Stay calm, hold tightly to cash, and let us wait for the moment when consensus solidifies amidst divergence. After all, the real market belongs to those who can traverse the darkness.
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