1. Early morning shock: The 'slaughter scene' of altcoins collectively crashing. This morning, the crypto world staged a 'Black Friday' rehearsal, with the altcoin sector collapsing like dominoes: nearly a thousand coins dropped over 10%, once-popular MEME coins halved in a single day, and countless retail investors who just added positions last night have seen their holdings shrink to 'down payment turning into parking space'. The community is filled with cries of 'delete software for safety' and 'see you on the rooftop', as new investors experience for the first time: the gentle harbor of crypto may be a guillotine. However, amidst this bloodbath, Ethereum (ETH) stands like a lighthouse in the storm—when UNI, SOL, and other second-tier coins plummeted by 20%, ETH remained volatile around the $2,000 mark and even attempted to rebound to $2,100 around noon. This extreme divergence of 'the main chain is stable while altcoins fall' is no coincidence.
2. Major players' strategies shift dramatically: from 'comprehensive cleansing' to 'precise hunting'. 1. Why are altcoins becoming 'sacrificial pieces'? Altcoins with a market cap below $5 billion inherently have the characteristics of 'high volatility and easy manipulation'. Major players can create panic sell-offs in a short period through exchange contract spikes and social media short-selling tactics. For example, in a certain DeFi token, major players used only $50 million to trigger a $500 million sell-off by retail investors—this is the 'leverage effect' of small coins. 2. Why is Ethereum 'immune'? As the 'infrastructure' of the crypto world, carrying 80% of on-chain ecology, ETH is the core asset held by institutions. Data shows that Grayscale's ETH trust increased its holdings by 23,000 this week, and Coinbase's premium rate has remained above 3%—major players are protecting the value of the main chain with real money. More importantly, the Cancun upgrade (EIP-4844) has entered the final testing phase, which means ETH is about to initiate a value leap of 'lowering gas fees + increasing TPS'; at this time, a sell-off is equivalent to 'cutting off one's financial path'.
3. Are retail investors' 'diamond hands' driving major players crazy? 1. Lying flat investment: Retail's 'counterattack'. The most important lesson the bear market of 2023 taught retail investors is: not trading is the best trading. On-chain data shows that the percentage of ETH addresses holding for over a year has reached 62%, a record high; USDT on-chain transfer frequency has decreased by 45%—retail investors are using 'playing dead' to fight back against the major players' washout tactics.
2. Major players' 'nuclear explosion' tactics. When the 'boiling frog' approach fails, major players launch their ultimate killing move:
Create a 'money-making illusion' and then slaughter: First push ETH to $2,770 to make retail investors chase high, then smash through $2,000 to trigger a chain of stop losses.
Targeted explosion of leveraged accounts: This morning, the entire network liquidated $280 million, with 90% coming from altcoin perpetual contracts.
Expectation management through dimensionality reduction: The Bitcoin conference releases conservative expectations of '100,000 - 200,000', making retail investors mistakenly believe that 'the bull market ceiling is very low', when in fact it is a prelude for a subsequent breakthrough of 300,000.
4. June reversal window: The 'golden trap' behind the crash
1. Countdown for favorable policies
June 15: Deadline for the U.S. SEC's approval of ETH futures ETF
June 22: G20 summit includes cryptocurrency regulation issues for the first time.
June 30: The Hong Kong virtual asset license officially takes effect.
Historical experience shows that 30 days before major policies are implemented is often the window period for major players' 'final washout'. Before the DeFi Summer in 2020, UNI fell 40% within 7 days; before the start of the bull market in 2021, ETH experienced a 'faith-destroying' correction from $4,800 to $1,700.
2. Calculating the golden bottom points.
From the Fibonacci retracement perspective, the 'ultimate target' for ETH's current decline is at $1,850 (corresponding to the bear market high in November 2022), which is also the strong support zone of the 200-week moving average ($1,832). If this position is broken, major players will face the risk of 'losing the rice without catching the chicken'—because institutions like Grayscale and MicroStrategy have set strategies of 'unlimited purchases below $1,900'.
5. Survival guide through volatility: Three sentences to save your life
1. Hard rules for position management
Always keep 30% cash: Buy back 20% when the market drops 10%, and buy back 30% when it breaks key support levels (e.g., if ETH drops below $1,900).
Absolutely avoid altcoin contracts: The spike amplitude of small coins can reach 3 times that of spot trading; 10x leverage is equivalent to 'gambling with your life'.
2. Psychological massage formula
When you want to cut losses, repeat three times: 'The major players took 3 months to push ETH to $2,800; it is impossible to sell off in just 3 days.' '90% of the chips I am cutting now will be taken by institutions like OKX Jump and Alameda.' 'Licensing in Hong Kong in June may cause ETH transaction fees to soar by 50%.'
3. Counterintuitive operation checklist
Turn off market alerts: Every time you check the market, the decision-making error rate increases by 40%.
Write down the wallet private key on paper: Avoid emotional software deletion leading to permanent loss.
Regularly invest in mainstream coins: Use 10% of your salary to buy ETH weekly; the average cost will be lower than that of the 'bottom-fishing crowd'.
Conclusion: When you are questioning life, the major players are counting your chips.
The cruelest truth in the crypto world is: the market always starts when retail investors experience 'cognitive disruption'. When you are tortured to the point of doubting 'blockchain is dead' by the crash of altcoins, when you see ETH stagnating for 3 months and conclude 'the main chain has collapsed', when you swear 'once I break even, I will forever exit the crypto world'—congratulations, you are only one heartbeat away from the true starting point of the bull market.
Remember: true wealth is always hidden in accounts that 'most people dare not look at'. Every drop now is a cheap chip that 'even with 3x leverage cannot be bought back' in the future. Cover your ears, hold tight to cash, and let us witness the return of faith in the spring breeze of policy in June.