On May 30, the last day of the Bitcoin 2025 conference, the market once again fulfilled the 'conference drop' curse. Bitcoin briefly fell below $105,000 this morning, hitting a low of $104,600. Ethereum also dropped from a high of $2,788 to a low of $2,557. The altcoin market generally saw a pullback, with some altcoins like BERA even hitting historical lows.
In the futures market, according to Coinglass data, $330 million was liquidated across the network in the past hour, with $321 million from long positions and $7.89 million from short positions.
In the macro market, US crypto stocks COIN and MSTR both fell after hours. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have been uncertain; Fed's Daly stated on Thursday that while policymakers might still cut rates twice this year, current rates should remain stable to ensure inflation reaches the Fed's 2% target. Daly emphasized that as long as inflation is above the target and uncertainty exists, inflation will remain a focal point due to the robust labor market. Additionally, the US Trade Court's block of Trump's tariff measures was overturned by the appellate court on Thursday, highlighting the uncertainty in trade policy, which concerns many businesses and the Fed.
Is this pullback a healthy short-term correction, or are we about to enter a long-term consolidation? Let's hear the market views from experts and analysts.
Placeholder partner: A slight market pullback does not indicate the end of the trend; the risk structure remains good.
Placeholder partner Chris Burniske posted on social media stating, 'Don't mistake minor pullbacks for the end of the trend; the overall risk/reward structure remains good.'
Matrixport: The contract data shows that traders may be closing positions to take profits.
According to the latest report from Matrixport (analyst Markus Thielen from 10x Research), the open interest in futures has surged significantly since the low in April. Although Solana has retreated due to the cooling off of meme coins and the Pump.fun craze, Bitcoin's open interest has shown significant growth. This surge may reflect a shift in market risk appetite, especially following the recent reversal of Trump's tariff policies. Bitcoin continues to play a dual role as both a 'risk-on' and 'safe-haven' asset, increasingly aligning with the narrative of 'digital gold.'
However, open contracts currently seem to be stabilizing, which may confirm our view that traders are starting to take profits and plan to re-enter at lower levels.
Bitfinex Report: Bitcoin enters a healthy consolidation phase, and profit-taking by short-term holders may trigger selling pressure.
Bitfinex Alpha reported on May 26 that after reaching a historical high in January, Bitcoin experienced a 32% pullback, but subsequently rebounded strongly by over 50%, reaching a new high of $111,880, and is now in a healthy consolidation phase. Strong ETF inflows, soaring participation in the spot market, and positive 'realized net capital' growth have driven structural buying in the market rather than excessive speculation. Despite a pullback in macro risk appetite, such as reports of the US possibly imposing 50% tariffs on European imports, Bitcoin remains resilient, showing no significant decline during the deleveraging and profit-taking process.
This resilience is sparking market attention regarding Bitcoin's evolution into a 'macro-sensitive, belief-driven asset.' Its trading behavior is now more correlated with global liquidity trends rather than retail sentiment. Notably, Japan's Metaplanet company has increased its Bitcoin holdings valued at $104 million, and a proposal in Michigan, USA, to introduce favorable legislation for crypto assets further validates the growing institutional and policy support for digital assets.
Looking ahead, whether Bitcoin can continue to consolidate above its short-term holder cost basis (approximately $95,000) will be crucial. In the past month, short-term holders have realized over $11.4 billion in profits, suggesting potential selling pressure in the short term, but structural demand remains. The strength of ETF buying, low volatility, and premium signals in the spot market all indicate that the market is maturing. Once the macro environment clarifies, further increases may follow. Currently, the next few weeks will determine whether this Bitcoin breakout is a temporary peak or the prologue to a stronger rally in Q3.
Arthur Hayes: Ethereum's price is expected to double to $5,000 this year.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated at the Bitcoin 2025 conference that Ethereum's price is expected to reach $4,000-$5,000 this year. Hayes believes Ethereum is currently the 'least popular Layer 1 public chain,' but this may present an investment opportunity during market cycle transitions.
CryptoQuant analyst: BTC short-term holders have realized profits at local highs, but have not yet reached the peak levels of past bull markets.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. posted on social media that the STH SOPR (30-day moving average), an indicator measuring the average realized profit and loss when short-term investors spend tokens, recently reached a local high, indicating a significant increase in profits realized by short-term holders. Nevertheless, demand for tokens remains strong, not affecting the current upward trend. This indicator has not yet reached the euphoria levels seen at previous important price peaks.
