First, let's talk about the general direction and trend. I believe the bull market won't arrive that quickly, so everyone should set their expectations for August to September.
Why do I say that?
From a macro perspective, the Federal Reserve has started to sound tough again, and a rate cut in June is basically out of the question; the earliest it might happen is in August or September. Although some smaller countries have begun adjusting their benchmark interest rates, the U.S. hasn't loosened its stance, which makes the market funds hesitant to act recklessly. Additionally, while the pressure from trade has eased somewhat, the positive news isn't strong enough to drive the overall market to accelerate upward.
Looking at market sentiment, throughout May, the market's greed index stayed above 60, indicating that the market isn't in panic but hasn't reached a particularly crazy or euphoric state either.
Most altcoins are still digesting the bubbles created by the surge at the end of April; only a few are in a genuine uptrend, while the rest are experiencing a slow decline and bottoming out. So, many people feel that the bull market is here, but it's actually just an illusion created by structural market conditions.
Now, looking at BTC, yesterday it fluctuated around 108,000, then dropped to around 114,800, a decline of nearly 4,000 points. This 4,000 points is the current defensive zone. How the market moves next will depend on whether the price can be pulled back above 110,000 in the next two to three days, and if the monthly line closes positively, then we can continue to expect a price surge next month.
If the price closes below 106,000 in the last few days of the month, this trend will be very similar to last December's peak, where it first made a new high and then continuously retraced. Technically, this would become a failed peak + monthly line reversal, which could open up significant downward space.
So overall, don’t rush; the bull market can't be summoned just by shouting, it must be built with real money. The current structural rotation combined with the main forces testing the waters indicates that it’s not yet time for a full-on charge. It's better to wait patiently until August or September when the market will be more stable.
Recently, I've been planning to position myself for a potential explosive coin; doubling my investment is quite simple, and expecting a tenfold increase is definitely not a problem. If you want to stay updated, like + leave a message for free sharing!
