Recently, the price of Bitcoin has surged towards the $110,000 mark under multiple positive factors, while short-term adjustment signals are significant. This article analyzes the current situation from event-driven, market sentiment, institutional movements, and historical cycles: 1. Trade tensions easing boost market confidence The United States has postponed a planned 50% tariff on the European Union from June 1 to July 9, releasing a window for trade negotiations. This move alleviates the selling pressure on risk assets, with Bitcoin quickly rebounding above $109,000 on the evening of June 2. The market believes that short-term uncertainty has decreased, and funds are reallocating to cryptocurrency assets. 2. Extreme speculation signs in the futures market The financing rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts has soared to over 0.15% per day, reflecting strong bullish expectations among leveraged long positions. Meanwhile, the total open interest has recovered to $75 billion, indicating active institutional participation. However, historical experience shows that when the market's consensus expectations peak in a high-leverage environment, it is prone to price corrections (as seen in the December 2024 case). 3. Institutional accumulation signals reinforce long-term logic The largest institutional holder of Bitcoin, MicroStrategy CEO, stated, 'Allocate with funds that can bear losses,' which is seen as a potential trigger for a new round of accumulation. This institution currently holds 503,800 coins (valued at over $50 billion), and its continuous buying strategy enhances market confidence in institutional allocation of cryptocurrencies. 4. Historical cycles warn of short-term adjustment risks Technical indicators show that Bitcoin has risen for 7 consecutive weeks; historically, this has only occurred 3 times in 8 years, with no records of 9 weeks. Statistics indicate that after rising for 7-8 weeks, there is a 70% probability of a pullback the following week, averaging a 15%-20% decline. Currently, the RSI is overbought (>75), and the Bollinger Bands deviation rate is too high, indicating a short-term mean reversion demand. Operational advice: Balance long and short risks In the short term, trade easing and institutional expectations drive prices upward, but high leverage and overbought indicators suggest a potential pullback. Investors may seize long-term allocation opportunities (institutional holdings account for 23% of circulation, enhancing scarcity), while controlling short-term chasing risks: it is recommended to build positions in batches, controlling the cost below $100,000, and setting dynamic stop-loss orders to respond to technical adjustments. Recently, mainly sharing internally, so friends I’ve met, please pay more attention. #美国加征关税 #BTC $ETH