When you see large holders who bought Bitcoin three to five years ago suddenly making frequent moves, what is your first reaction? Are they cashing in on the victory they've waited for years, or are they maneuvering chips for the next offensive? At the moment Bitcoin is sliding from its peak, the movements of old players on-chain may hint at the next rhythm point in the market.
Recently, Bitcoin's price has shown signs of fatigue, falling for six consecutive days from a historical high of $111,970 to around $107,540, a drop of over 4%. At this time, a category of investors is beginning to 'revive'—long-term holders, especially OG-level Bitcoin old wallets.
According to Glassnode data, investors holding for three to five years recently experienced the fifth largest capital expenditure event in this bull market, totaling $2.16 billion. The actions of this group are often seen as a barometer of market trends: they do not trade frequently, but each action has a profound impact.
Old money is frequently moving; is this a layout or an exit?
It is noteworthy that since the beginning of 2024, these old coin holders (HODLers) have made large transfers multiple times at key points:
October 2024: $9.25 billion outflow, primarily from accounts holding for 1-2 years;
March 2024: $6.11 billion outflow, primarily from 2-3 year holders;
February 2025: $5.42 billion expenditure, still primarily from 2-3 year holders;
November 2024: $4.39 billion expenditure, primarily from 3-5 year holders;
May 2025: $2.16 billion expenditure, with the 3-5 year holding group leading again.
From these outflow behaviors, a key trend has become very clear: older wallets are more inclined to reallocate or release assets at local market peaks.
But the question is, is this round of outflow a profit-taking or a strategic reallocation? Different judgments will lead to completely different interpretations of future market trends.
If it is 'strategic allocation': BTC may enter a high-level consolidation.
If these expenditures are meant to be transferred to other currencies, enter DeFi protocols, or participate in RWA (real-world asset) ecosystems, it indicates that OG wallets believe the current price does not present extreme risk and may still be an adjustment within a larger cycle.
Mlion.ai's capital flow analysis model shows that this portion of BTC funds has not all flowed back to exchanges, nor has there been a simultaneous large-scale fiat currency exchange behavior; it looks more like an active adjustment of on-chain asset structure.
In addition, according to Mlion.ai's on-chain address tracking module, some BTC from these 3-5 year wallets is flowing into multi-signature custody and high-level wallets, indicating that they do not intend to cash out immediately.
If it is 'high-level cashing out': BTC may pull back to key support in the short term.
However, another interpretation of the market cannot be ignored. The current price level is already in the range of 4 to 10 times the profit for most 3-5 year old wallets, making the motivation to cash out very logical.
Especially during Bitcoin's explosive rise since the end of 2023, many long-term investors have achieved returns far exceeding the average target. Choosing to cash out partially at this point also aligns with asset rebalancing strategies, especially for institutional wallets.
Mlion.ai's on-chain sentiment analysis model has recently captured a set of changing signals:
On-chain activity is declining,
Short-term average holdings are decreasing,
High-frequency address behaviors are fluctuating more.
These combined factors likely indicate that the market has entered a cooling-off period, and high-level cashing out operations may accelerate this emotional fermentation, potentially leading to a short-term price retracement to $106,000 or even lower support.
In-depth analysis: Is this a peak or a continuation?
Historically, the actions of old wallets do not equate to a top signal. On the contrary, their spending behavior acts more like a 'slope regulator': when the rise is too fast, they release chips to slow down the market rhythm and prevent uncontrollable FOMO emotions.
For example:
At the end of 2020, just before the bull market, OG wallets released funds multiple times, but BTC still rose from $19,000 to $64,000;
The spending peak in May 2021 did not constitute a top, but rather entered a consolidation phase before rising again.
The key difference is whether retail investors are taking over and whether the market has the liquidity to absorb the release of large funds.
In the current cycle, Mlion.ai's model for retail funding entry heat has not shown any large-scale explosion; the trading frequency of retail wallets and the number of new addresses are at a neutrally low level. This indicates that if the market loses the bottom support sentiment of long-term holders, it is very likely to face a wave correction.
How should investors respond?
Whether it is a callback or consolidation, the current stage has placed higher demands on traders. Recommendation:
Focus on the trends of high-net-worth addresses on-chain to prevent sudden selling pressure from triggering a short-term cascade;
Utilize Mlion.ai's K-line strategy diagram and coin price prediction module to dynamically adjust profit-taking points and entry points;
Pay more attention to on-chain structural changes rather than just price trends, and maintain sensitivity to the logic of funding.
Don't forget, real market opportunities often arise at points of market 'uncertainty'.
Conclusion:
The movement of funds by Bitcoin's long-term holders is not just a simple trading action, but a warning sign of a change in the entire market structure. What they are doing may not be fully understood at first, but we must pay attention.
Whether you can interpret these clues in a timely manner and respond to the next trend will depend on whether you possess an intelligent research and investment system like Mlion.ai.
In today's increasingly complex on-chain trading, having a pair of 'eyes that see the trend clearly' is your trump card for survival in the crypto world.
Disclaimer: The above content is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please make careful judgments based on your own risk tolerance.