If we review this round of market trends, we can say that BTC's entire process from $75,000 to $110,000 was rapid and rhythmic. Each surge was accompanied by corresponding 'U.S. events'; for example, the China-U.S. trade talks, Trump calling to buy U.S. stocks, the passage of the first state reserve bill, stablecoin legislation, and so on.
From the RMMPC data, we can see that the wave in March 2024 was driven by funds from Asia and the U.S. (the red line and blue line are equally high), and the exit was also almost simultaneous from the U.S. and Asia, after which BTC began to switch to a rhythm of fluctuating downwards.
From November 2024, the rise from $70,000 to $100,000 was led by Asian funds (the red line is higher than the blue line), while U.S. funds merely followed; but during the exit, the U.S. withdrew first until Asian funds could not hold on, and BTC reached a temporary peak and began to enter a rhythm of 'correction-rebound-correction'.
This time, the path of the surge is significantly different from the previous two. This time it was entirely driven by U.S. funds rapidly pushing under various 'U.S. events'; while Asian funds began to withdraw in advance after BTC rebounded and broke $100,000 (the blue line and red line are completely opposite), with the new high from $100,000 to $110,000 having almost nothing to do with Asian funds.
'It takes a thief to catch a thief' — therefore, the 'endpoint' or possible 'turning point' of this rebound will also be determined by U.S. funds.
From the data, starting May 24, U.S. regional sentiment began to weaken, but the Asian region remained relatively strong, which is why BTC prices have still maintained a high level of sideways movement.
So now, the complex problem has become simpler, which is to see how Trump’s 'words' will magically keep coming up with new tricks to stimulate U.S. investor sentiment. If all positive expectations have already been priced in, and there are no new narratives to fill in, then according to the current situation, it seems there is at least a slight feeling of subsequent weakness in sentiment.
We will continue to keep an eye on this; I will notify my small circle immediately if there are any abnormalities.
