$ETH
Forecasts and Potential Scenarios:
Bearish Scenario (Currently Highest Probability):
* Price is below short-term moving averages: MA7 at 2,644.38 and MA25 at 2,653.36.
* MACD is negative (-3.36), with RSI(6) remaining in the moderate selling zone (41.98).
* High trading volume (1.56 billion USDT) reinforces selling pressure.
Downward Path:
* Breaking below 2,617.03 could push the price towards the crucial support at 2,607.59.
* A breach of 2,607.59 opens the way to a target of 2,583.51 (near MA99 at 2,576.33).
Upside Reversal Scenario (Requires Strong Catalysts):
* Conditions for Reversal:
* Breaking above resistance at 2,650.55 with a close above it.
* Improved indicator momentum (RSI back above 50 + positive MACD convergence).
* Upside Targets:
* 2,684.08 then 2,712.36 (today's high).
Practical Recommendations:
1. Short-Term Trading:
* Avoid buying until the price rises and closes above MA7 (2,644.38).
* Monitor the range of 2,607.59–2,583.51 as potential buying areas only when:
* There's a swift bounce from support.
* RSI reaches oversold territory (<30).
* Buying volume increases.
2. Risk Management:
* Sellers: Take advantage of bounces towards 2,644–2,650 for selling opportunities.
* Buyers: Wait for price to stabilize above 2,650.55 with confirmation of positive momentum (positive MACD).
3. Pivotal Points:
* Drop below 2,607.59: Signals a new selling wave targeting 2,583.51.
* Rise above 2,650.55: Signals a potential reversal towards 2,684.
Conclusion:
The current trend is bearish with an absence of immediate reversal signals. The downtrend could accelerate within 24-48 hours if the price breaks below 2,607.59. The main support at 2,583.51 (near MA99) could trigger a bounce if accompanied by positive momentum signals and high trading volume. It is advisable to wait for market stability confirmation before entering buy trades.
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