1. Three possible trends:
1. Crash mode (most dangerous)
Trigger condition: If the ETH price drops below $2650, it may accelerate the decline
Where will it drop to:
First line of defense: $2600-2620 (psychological support level for retail investors, may have a temporary rebound)
Second line of defense: $2550-2580 (institutional bottom-fishing area, but may not hold)
Note: Don't rush to bottom-fish under this trend; it's easy to catch falling knives
2. Weak rebound (grinding market)
Trigger condition: ETH must stabilize above $2680 (like consolidating for more than 2 hours)
Where can it rise to:
First Wall: $2700-2720 (Short-term selling pressure area, may be pushed back)
Ultimate ceiling: $2750 (previously trapped area, difficult to break through)
Note: This rebound may be a false signal, if it can't rise, run!
3. Crash mode (black swan attack)
Possible triggers:
Mt. Gox suddenly transfers out over 100,000 bitcoins to crash the market
The US SEC crazily cracks down on stablecoins (for example, USDT issues)
Consequences: ETH may instantly drop below $2500, or even lower
Note: This is a low-probability event, but those with heavy positions must set stop losses
2. Operation guide (simple version)
Short strategy (betting on fall):
Can I short now? The current price around $2660-2680 can try shorting (like opening a 10% position)
When to give up? If it breaks above $2700, stop loss immediately, don't be stubborn
How much to take profit? If it drops to $2600-2630, gradually close positions; don't be greedy
Long strategy (betting on rise):
Aggressive bottom-fishing: If it suddenly drops to $2550, you can buy in small size (like 5%), but must set a stop loss at $2500 (cut loss if it breaks below)
Cautious approach: If ETH violently rises and breaks through $2750 and stabilizes, wait for a pullback to around $2700 to buy, with a stop loss at $2680 and a target of $2800
3. Crow summary
The current market feels like walking on a tightrope: no strength to go up, risk to go down
Focus on $2650 and $2680: If it drops below $2650, quickly reduce your position; if it stabilizes above $2680, you can try a small long position
Black swan cannot be prevented: Don't let your position exceed 30% of your capital, keep enough bullets to deal with extreme situations
Remember: The market specializes in treating stubbornness; if you're wrong, admit it; stay alive to turn the tables!
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