Current Market Analysis
The price of Bitcoin is currently at a critical technical juncture. As we predicted yesterday, the ten-day moving average serves as an important support, currently stabilizing at $100,700. As long as this line is not broken, the bullish trend can continue. From the four-hour level, the price has broken through the middle Bollinger Band, with the potential to attack the upper band around $100,800. However, if it cannot stabilize above $100,000 and forms a lower high at $100,500, it may break the lifeline, showing signs of a collapse in the bullish pattern similar to an M top. Currently, the price is supported by the ten-day moving average and has not lost the critical level.
Recent Market Performance
Yesterday, Bitcoin retraced to the ten-day moving average. Bulls entering at $100,700 have already profited over 2000 points, making it a position to build a position on dips, but this is only short-term. On the four-hour level, the price touched the upper Bollinger Band but did not reach $100,800, forming a lower high. On the daily chart, yesterday formed a long upper shadow, indicating weakness in upward momentum. Despite the relief from tariffs, continuous buying by MicroStrategy, and rumors of the Trump family planning to invest $3 billion in Bitcoin benefiting the market, the price still experienced a pullback, reflecting strong technical resistance.
Market Influencing Factors
Multiple factors are affecting the trend of Bitcoin. First, legendary trader James Wynn opened a long position around $110,000, and due to public exposure of the position, it is suspected to have been targeted, with a stop loss set at $100,500, which may trigger panic selling. Second, due to the weekend and the closure of U.S. stock markets, trading volume is significantly insufficient, making the market susceptible to manipulation by individual players, reducing the reliability of the trend. Additionally, if this week's PCE data is lower than expected, it may relieve pressure and boost prices.
Trading Strategies and Outlook
Current market advice is to operate cautiously. High selling and low buying can be conducted within the range of $100,000 to $100,800. If it breaks through $100,500 or falls below $100,000, it may trigger a rise or sell-off, respectively. In the short term, Bitcoin may enter a period of fluctuation, providing opportunities for altcoins to perform. The one-hour chart shows a rapid rebound, and if it closes above yesterday's opening price of the bearish candle, it may retest $110,000.
$110,000 has become a key resistance level, and failure to break through will increase downward pressure. In summary, although the daily chart shows signs of fatigue, retail investors and large players are dominating the market, making the trend unreliable. We hope for favorable PCE data to push the price to stabilize above $110,500 for sideways consolidation. Wishing everyone a profitable bull market!