On May 29, 2025, the Bitcoin Conference was in full swing, but the price was not hot. Attendees did not even need to look at the Bitcoin market. Such weak fluctuations and solid price trends on the market were not as exciting as the big mouths on the stage. US Vice President Vance boldly predicted at the Bitcoin Conference that Bitcoin will reach $170,000 by the end of 2025. As a lackey with a long history of "bad deeds" in his speech, he often speaks nonsense for political purposes.
But this time, Vance's remarks seem to be able to achieve what he wants, driven by the Trump administration's pro-cryptocurrency policies, the surging influx of institutional funds, and the large-scale hoarding of enterprises. However, although the Federal Reserve has not cut interest rates, the capital gate has been quietly opened, but this wave of gains may become a "tragedy for retail investors." What is going on?
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Background and significance of Vance's prediction
At the Bitcoin Conference on May 28, 2025, Vance gave an inspiring speech. He declared: "Bitcoin is not only digital gold, but also an important pillar of the future financial system." He predicted that Bitcoin will reach $170,000 by the end of the year, a figure that quickly became the focus of market discussion. As the Vice President of the United States, Vance's remarks not only represent his personal views, but also reflect the Trump administration's firm support for cryptocurrencies. He also revealed that he holds "a considerable amount of Bitcoin." Vance speaks, and you can listen to him, but the current information shows that the above remarks are not flattery to the atmosphere of the Bitcoin Conference, and many fundamentals seem to be evolving in the direction he expected.
Evidence 1: Institutional funds and ETF boom - the cornerstone of the rise
The participation of institutional investors is the core driving force behind the rise in Bitcoin prices. In May 2025, the net inflow of Bitcoin ETFs hit a new high, totaling $5.77 billion. For example, on May 28, the net inflow was $432.7 million, maintaining a positive inflow trend for 19 consecutive days. These data show that institutional funds are pouring into the Bitcoin market at an alarming rate. This time, the rise in Bitcoin is not driven by short-term contract investors who are hyped by news, but has a solid spot purchase foundation.
Evidence 2: A gap has been opened for US pension funds to enter the market
The U.S. Department of Labor recently revoked its guidance prohibiting 401(k) retirement accounts from allocating crypto assets in 2022. Although this policy adjustment does not mean encouraging crypto investment, it clears the way for institutions to include Bitcoin in retirement accounts. Under the Republican government's relaxed financial regulatory attitude, this change is seen as a structural positive, which may further amplify the inflow effect of institutional funds. The influx of institutional funds not only brings capital, but also brings market confidence. When Wall Street giants and pension funds begin to allocate Bitcoin, retail investors tend to follow suit.
Evidence 3: Companies are hoarding Bitcoin — a relay game has already begun
Corporate Bitcoin purchases further drove up prices. MicroStrategy, as the largest corporate holder, held 580,250 Bitcoins as of May 26, 2025, with a total cost of $3.3139 billion. Executive Chairman Michael Saylor announced the "21/21 Plan", which plans to raise $42 billion between 2025 and 2027 to continue to increase holdings. In addition, the number of public companies holding Bitcoin surged to 80 in 2025, an increase of 142% from 2023. Companies such as Tesla, Block, and SpaceX added 50,000 to 70,000 Bitcoins in the first quarter of 2025.
Here are some of the major companies’ Bitcoin holdings in May 2025:
These companies see Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and a strategic reserve asset. This large-scale hoarding not only reduces the circulating supply in the market, but also sends a strong signal to investors: Bitcoin is transforming from a speculative asset to a corporate strategic reserve. This trend provides solid support for the price and may help it reach $160,000 or even higher.
Evidence 4: Experts predict that “adding fuel to the fire”
Experts are generally optimistic about the price of Bitcoin by the end of 2025. Here are some predictions from authoritative organizations:
Changelly: Average price in June 2025: $118,342.36, highest price: $127,327.53.
Swan Bitcoin: Citing Bernstein analysts’ prediction, it could be close to $200,000 by the end of the year.
Coinpedia: $175,000 in optimistic scenario.
Standard Chartered: Forecast up to $200,000.
These forecasts are highly consistent with JD Vance's $160,000-170,000 target, and it seems that the market is confident in the long-term future trend.
Of course, there is also an indelible shadow: tariff policies always come to mess things up!
Please interpret the following news as good news or bad news. On May 29, 2025, the U.S. International Trade Court ruled that the global tariffs announced by the Trump administration on "Liberation Day" were illegal on the grounds that they exceeded the president's authority. The ruling permanently prohibits the implementation of these tariffs and requires customs to stop collecting them within 10 days.
The Trump administration has appealed, but the prospects are unclear. If it loses, the company could get a refund of more than $21 billion. Trump came to power and turned the world upside down, and cryptocurrencies are also in a mess. Many people are very angry about Trump, and finally someone can deal with him. This should be good news.
After all, the uncertainty of tariff policies has caused market fluctuations many times, and everyone has become accustomed to it. For example, on May 23, Trump announced a 50% tariff on Europe, the U.S. stock market plummeted, and Bitcoin fell from $112,000 to $106,000; on May 26, the tariff was postponed, and Bitcoin rebounded to $110,700.
CoinGlass data shows that trading volume surged to $50 billion on May 23, up 30% from the previous week, reflecting the sensitive reaction of short-term traders. So, we always say that Bitcoin is a safe-haven asset, but when the tolerance is not large enough and the price is not high enough, it is still too closely linked to the US stock market, which is not friendly to short-term investors. So if someone can control this big mouth, at least we don’t have to worry about going long before going to bed and waking up to blow up.
However, it remains uncertain whether the law will work, as Katrina Ell, an analyst at Moody's, said on May 29 that the court's ruling to block the Trump administration's tariff increase seems positive for emerging markets that have been severely affected by high reciprocal tariffs, but the uncertainty of what will happen next makes it difficult to draw any conclusions other than this. "We cannot assume that this is a continued positive development, and how any legal challenges will play out remains to be seen."
In general, although the United States is a democratic country, it is a presidential system after all, so the real checks and balances will probably have to wait until the next term. Trump's direction of messing up the world is irreversible, but in the long run, the inability to restrict Trump is actually good news for long-term Bitcoin holders.
The whole world will become more and more conservative. Buffett holds 350 billion US dollars and remains short. He has recently invested in stable US bonds. It is unknown whether he will buy gold next. Of course, he looks down on and does not understand Bitcoin, which must be the choice of many safe-haven asset investors.
But this may just become the tragedy of retail investors. Just as Vance described in "Hillbilly Elegy", retail Bitcoin investors may experience the dilemma of owning Bitcoin and then having nothing left, and be forgotten by history just like the rednecks in the Rust Belt.
Bitcoin will become electronic gold sooner or later, and this is irreversible. However, there are still many twists and turns on this road. As Trump continues to act recklessly, short-term negative factors are still high. Bitcoin often rises well, and then plunges frequently. This process is probably to wash away those unsteady holders, and each callback is a good opportunity for big players to increase their Bitcoin holdings. In the past six months, after each big drop, there has been a large outflow of Bitcoin from the exchange. Now there are less than 3 million Bitcoins, which is ironclad evidence.
However, retail investors have information asymmetry. When institutions and big investors can obtain policy and market trends earlier, retail investors tend to chase rising prices at highs and sell at lows. Under short-term high volatility, retail investors are easily swayed by greed and profit-taking. Moreover, institutions easily invest hundreds of millions of dollars, and a floating loss of tens of millions of dollars will not affect their lives, but for retail investors, a floating loss of a few hundred dollars is like the sky falling.
Conclusion: $170,000 is within reach, but is Bitcoin a “white, rich and beautiful woman” that is increasingly out of reach for us?
Comprehensive analysis shows that Bitcoin is very likely to break through $170,000 by the end of 2025. The influx of institutional funds, large-scale hoarding by companies, optimistic forecasts by experts, and policy support from the Trump administration together form a solid foundation for the rise. Although the Federal Reserve has not cut interest rates, the capital gate has been opened driven by policies and markets. Although the uncertainty of tariff policies may cause short-term fluctuations, the safe-haven properties and strategic value of Bitcoin will help it go against the trend. However, seven years ago, retail investors with dozens of Bitcoins were common, and four years ago, it was not uncommon to have a few Bitcoins. Today, small investors with a few tenths of a Bitcoin are already wealthy. Will ordinary people count Bitcoin purchases by Satoshi in the future?
Thank you for watching, see you next time.