25/05/25 BTC weekly line has seen 7 consecutive gains, with daily line top divergence lasting for a long time, and the US and Japanese bond auction has 'cooled'.
The auction results for the US 20-year Treasury bond were poor, with the highest bid rate reaching 5.047%, approximately 1.2 basis points higher than the pre-issue rate, marking the largest tail spread in the past 6 months. The bid-to-cover ratio for Japan's 20-year Treasury bond auction was only 2.5 times, far below last month's 2.96 times, hitting the lowest level since 2012.
The cold reception of US and Japanese government bonds means that the difficulty of government financing has increased, requiring higher yields to attract investors. This will lead to an increase in government financing costs, and the cold reception of US and Japanese bonds may also cause investor panic to spread. Investors are worried about the market outlook and are selling assets, further exacerbating market instability.
The BTC weekly line has seen 7 consecutive gains. The weekly line has first touched the BOLL upper band and has retracted back below 110,000. If the rebound cannot continue to break through 110,000 and the previous high, there will be a demand for a pullback to the BOLL middle band around 94—95K. In the past two years, every sharp rise has lasted 7—8 weeks, so attention is needed, and this is also based on the completion of the 0.886 pullback in the US valley.
BTC
The daily line rebound has completed the shark pattern at 0.886, facing pressure below 1.13. Currently, the price is below 110,000, and if the rebound cannot continue to make new highs, the probability of a pullback is high. There is serious top divergence; previously, the shark pattern near 0.886 was also reminded, but the price continued to make new highs, and a false breakout has occurred.
The price has broken below 110,000 and the rebound has not stood back, but the daily upward trend line has not completely broken, so the short-term rebound is still looking for a pullback. Now testing the support around 106,000, the first target is 100,000, the second target is 94,000—96,000, with two rounds of increased positions.
Support: 94000—96000—100000
Resistance: 110000—112000
ETH
ETH has retraced near 2738, and the daily line has formed an engulfing pattern, with the upward trend being broken. The first support is around 2300, and the Fibonacci levels of 0.382 and 0.5 support are 2000—2200. It is advised to buy in batches as it drops, with the first target at 2300, and the second target at 2100 being better if it can touch down.
Support: 2100—2200—2300
Resistance: 2738—2856—3200
