The Future Growth Potential of SUI
1. Project Comparison and Market Capitalization Analysis:
• BTC is a long-term strong representative, ETH was strong but is currently underperforming, SOL has gone through a cycle of strong-weak-strong, and SUI has been performing strongly since its launch in 2023.
• SUI is similar to SOL, both are among the most powerful L1 projects; the current circulating market capitalization is approximately $12.1 billion, with an FDV of $36.3 billion, only about 33% unlocked. Undoubtedly, the concentration of holdings must be very high; otherwise, such a high market cap could not be achieved.
2. Mathematical Derivation of Growth Potential:
• If SUI's FDV reaches SOL's historical high of $150 billion, the price of SUI will approach $14.9;
• If calculated based on circulating market capitalization, SUI would need to reach a $150 billion MC (hypothetical projection), and the coin price would reach $44.6;
• Prices like $10-15 seem possible, but the premise is that the macro environment (liquidity) is very loose, and the overall market is on the rise.
3. Existing Uncertainties and Risks:
• In a good macro environment, ETH and SOL will also surge, so a significant rise in SUI is logically acceptable;
• But the key question is: how do you know that the market makers will definitely push SUI up at that time?
• Early investors have already made substantial profits, and whether they still have the motivation to push the price up remains uncertain.
4. Investment Advice and Psychological Expectations:
• It's important to have a concept of price limits: SUI is unlikely to surpass SOL in a short period, let alone ETH;
• Controlling the cost price is crucial: the historical lowest secondary market cost is about $0.4, this year's low is about $1.72, and currently, it is $3.57;
• If #BTC encounters a macro crisis leading to a decline, it may present a more cost-effective buying point for SUI.
5. Concluding Reminders:
• Projects like SUI that have strength and narrative deserve attention;
• Since 2023, similar strong projects to SUI have emerged, such as APT;
• Do not blindly assume that current strength equals sustained future strength;
• It is essential to make rational judgments in conjunction with valuation, market capitalization, macro environment, and other factors.