Currently, apart from the whales holding more than 10,000 BTC who are in a relatively neutral stance (neither accumulating nor distributing), other groups are mainly focused on active accumulation. In particular, those holding 1-10 BTC and less than 1 BTC (retail groups) have also shifted from rapid distribution to active accumulation.

In fact, what we are most pleased to see is this divergence state where whales are accumulating and retail investors are distributing, which often corresponds to the relative bottom range of the market. However, when both large and small holding groups show active attitudes, the information released is not necessarily friendly.

At the very least, it indicates that the current market sentiment is somewhat overheated. Even retail groups are anticipating better price space in the short term (most retail investors engage in short-term trading), similar to how the market vendors know that trading A-shares can yield big profits.

This behavior is somewhat similar to the investor behavior observed in late November to early December 2024. However, this data will not lead me to raise the current risk rating. I still maintain the view from the tweet on May 23rd of a score of 8 out of 10.

So this does not mean an immediate turn is necessary, but rather reminds us to stay vigilant and not to overly FOMO.