Morning Outlook
1. BTC
Bitcoin is likely to choose a direction breakout, the current converging triangle pattern is unsustainable. The technical outlook is neutral but macro pressures are emerging, with a slightly higher probability of a downward breakout.
Market Scenario Analysis
Scenario 1: Downward Breakout
Trigger Condition: Price breaks below $108,500
Target Path:
First Support: $107,800 - $108,200
Second Support: $106,500 - $107,000
Scenario 2: Upward Breakout
Trigger Condition: Price stabilizes above $109,000 and breaks above the upper boundary ($109,200).
Target Path:
Short-term Resistance: $109,800 - $110,000
Breakout Target: $111,500
Scenario 3: Continued Fluctuation
Narrowing Volatility: Price remains in the range of $108,300 - $109,000
Trading Strategy
1. Breakout Following Strategy
Upward Breakout: If there is a strong breakout above $109,200, chase long to $110,000, stop loss at $108,800.
Downward Breakout: If it breaks below $108,300, chase short to $107,500, stop loss at $108,800.
2. Range Trading Strategy
High Sell: Lightly short at $108,900 - $109,100, stop loss at $109,500, target $108,300 - $108,500.
Low Buy: Lightly long at $108,300 - $108,500, stop loss at $107,800, target $109,000 - $109,200.
