Midday Outlook

1. BTC

Bitcoin is likely entering a phase of consolidation and upward movement - pullback stage, with $108,500 becoming the dividing line between bulls and bears. The technical outlook is neutral to strong, but macro pressure is emerging. If it holds above $108,200, the target is $109,000-$110,000; if it breaks support, it may retrace to the $106,500-$107,500 range.

Market Scenario Analysis

Scenario 1: Continued Consolidation and Upward Movement

Trigger Condition: Price holds above $108,200

- Target Path:

- Short-term Resistance: $108,800-$109,000

- Breakthrough Target: $110,000-$111,000

Scenario 2: Technical Pullback

Trigger Condition: Price falls below $107,800

Support Verification:

Strong Support 1: $107,200-$107,500

Strong Support 2: $106,500-$106,800

Scenario 3: Extreme Volatility

- Black Swan Event: Mt. Gox creditors initiate large transfers, and the U.S. SEC conducts a surprise investigation of stablecoin issuers.

- Impact Range**: Price may flash crash to $105,000 or spike to $112,000. #币安Alpha上新