Morning Outlook

2. ETH is likely to fluctuate between $2465 and $2580, with the bullish-bearish dividing line at $2530. Insufficient technical volume and on-chain selling pressure create a pullback risk, but institutional fund inflows (BlackRock ETF) and short covering provide potential upward momentum. If it stabilizes above $2520, it may rebound to test the $2555 resistance; if it falls below $2500, be wary of a rapid pullback to $2465.

Market Scenarios

Scenario 1: Weak Rebound

Trigger Condition: Price stabilizes at $2530

Target Path:

First Resistance: $2555-$2575

Scenario 2: Continued Bottoming

Trigger Condition: Price falls below $2520, possibly retesting the $2465-$2480 range.

Scenario 3: Extreme Volatility

Black Swan Event: Sudden regulatory dispute over ETH staking by the US SEC, massive whale sell-off (single transaction > 50,000 ETH), which may trigger a flash crash below $2400.

Trading Recommendations

1. Bullish Strategy

Left Side Speculation: If it stabilizes after a pullback to $2500-$2520, consider light long positions, stop loss at $2480, target $2555-$2580.

Right Side Breakout: If it stabilizes above $2555 and volume increases, chase long positions to $2600, stop loss at $2530.

2. Bearish Strategy

High Position Short: Open shorts in the $2555-$2575 range, stop loss at $2600, target $2500-$2465.