Market Review
The dollar index fell sharply this week, ending a four-week streak of gains, with a drop to a two-week low on Wednesday. After the House of Representatives passed Trump's 'Beautiful America Act', market concerns over U.S. government debt intensified. Additionally, following a cold reception for the 20-year Treasury auction, long-term yields surged, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.63% during the week, the highest level since mid-February.

Spot gold rose this week, returning above the 3300 mark, primarily influenced by the weakening dollar, ongoing global geopolitical tensions, and uncertainties regarding trade prospects. The continuous rise in the U.S. fiscal deficit has also made investors uneasy about the economic outlook, increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. On Friday, after Trump announced plans to impose a 50% tariff on the EU and a 25% tariff on Apple, gold briefly surged to $3360 per ounce.

The weakening dollar boosted the performance of non-dollar currencies, with the euro, pound, Australian dollar, yen, and Canadian dollar all expected to rise against the dollar this week. Among them, the pound has risen against the dollar for five consecutive trading days, while the dollar has seen a significant drop against the yen for the second consecutive week.

Regarding international oil prices, at the beginning of Wednesday's trading, influenced by foreign media reports about Israel preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, WTI and Brent crude oil opened higher and continued to rise, with the increase at one point expanding to about 3%, but then continued to decline, erasing all gains of the day and turning negative. Both U.S. and Brent crude oil are expected to close lower this week.

In terms of risk assets, U.S. stocks turned from rising to falling this week. On Monday, U.S. stocks opened lower after Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign rating, but retail investors' record buying pushed the three major indices to open low and move higher, with the S&P 500 index achieving a '6-day winning streak', closing just a step away from the bull market area. On that day, individual investors net bought $4.1 billion worth of U.S. stocks, with the trading volume accounting for as much as 36%, both hitting historic highs. Starting on Tuesday, U.S. stocks turned down, ending the six-day rise of the S&P 500 index, and subsequently, a cold reception for the 20-year Treasury auction led to a triple hit on stocks, bonds, and currencies.

In addition, the price of Bitcoin broke through $110,000 on Thursday, setting a new historical high. This increase was mainly due to progress in U.S. stablecoin legislation, with rising market expectations for regulatory clarity.

Selected views from investment banks
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned the market not to be complacent, as the chances of rising inflation and stagflation are greater than people imagine, and credit spreads have not fully reflected the risks of an economic downturn; he also stated that the possibility of the U.S. economy falling into stagflation cannot be ruled out, and that it is wise for the Federal Reserve to remain cautious.

KKR believes that U.S. Treasuries are losing their effectiveness as a portfolio 'shock absorber', with the dollar being overvalued by about 15%, posing a risk of 'structural' weakening.

Technical indicators show that forex options traders' pessimism regarding the dollar's trajectory over the next year has reached unprecedented levels. Traders report that hedge funds are buying short-term put options on the dollar against a range of currencies, including the yen, pound, and euro, with options trading active for two weeks to one month.

UBS's report shows that the main reason for the recent sell-off of U.S. Treasuries is the reduced probability of 'economic recession', rather than structural issues such as concerns about foreign capital outflows or debt control.

UBS strategists are optimistic about the Chinese stock market, stating that the anticipated return of foreign capital is a significant logic for the next few quarters, with Hong Kong stocks slightly outperforming A-shares.

Weekly major events
1. Trump plans to impose a 50% tariff on the EU and a 25% tariff on Apple.

2. Trump's 'Beautiful America Act' passed the House of Representatives.

3. Trump bans Harvard from enrolling international students.

4. Federal Reserve officials dampen interest rate cut expectations, the Supreme Court provides a safety net for Powell.

5. U.S. media: Intelligence indicates Israel is preparing to attack Iran's nuclear facilities.

6. On May 19, President Trump spoke separately with Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky.

7. Musk: To continue leading Tesla for the next five years and reduce political spending.

Today's cryptocurrency early report

1. On May 23, Trump posted on TruthSocial that the EU's trade barriers and VAT measures are detrimental to the U.S., resulting in an annual trade deficit of over $250 billion. He suggested imposing a 50% tariff on EU products starting June 1, 2025, with no tariffs for products made in the U.S.

2. On May 23, U.S. Treasury Secretary Basent stated that several significant trade agreements are expected to be reached in the coming weeks. Tariff policies have generated considerable revenue, and in the future, there will be hundreds of billions in tariff revenue annually, with an optimistic outlook for the deficit.

$BTC

#美国加征关税