$ETH Analysis · May 24th 8:15

🧱 Main Scenario: Weak rebound, waiting for further confirmation of bearish continuation

If 2539-2550 fails to stabilize and a 3-minute level LH confirmation appears, it can be seen as a failed rebound, and the structure continues to descend;

Observe whether the 2490-2460 blue OB area constitutes structural support;

If 2490 is lost → 2440 is the second observation point.

🧱 Secondary Scenario: Bulls building a reversal prototype, short-term speculative opportunity

If stabilizing in the 2545-2555 range and quickly establishing HL → HH structure, then attempt light positions to speculate on an upward test of 2580-2600;

The upper target is a strong resistance area: 2590-2610 (top of the Premium area);

But beware that there has not been substantial capital inflow, and the rebound is mostly a weak repair.

🔍 Specific Analysis

On-chain data analysis conclusion:

Active buying is weak, capital is mostly for short-term speculation, overall leaning towards short positions or high selling and low buying.

CVD continues to decline, indicating that capital is more about 'lifting while selling' or 'peaking and offloading', rather than substantial building of positions;

Transaction volume has significantly increased but positions have decreased, indicating 'came in and left', not long-term holdings;

Funding rates are low and slightly positive, indicating that bullish expectations still exist but with insufficient intensity.

Structural state conclusion:

The larger degree is still in a downtrend, while the smaller degree shows signs of repair but has not formed a reversal, needing continued observation.

3h, 45m still maintain LH structural rhythm, and the previous highs have not been broken;

3m, 15m show short-term HL attempts, but confirmation of breaking previous highs has not been achieved;

The current rebound appears more like a technical repair after a deep drop, whether it can evolve into a trend reversal depends on the performance of the subsequent reaction area.