The trends of Ethereum and Bitcoin in the coming week, the issues we need to focus on are all here. The current market presents a pattern of 'Bitcoin dominance, Ethereum gaining momentum, and altcoins diverging.'
In the short term, it may be wise to prioritize holding Bitcoin and controlling leverage. In the medium term, pay attention to the recovery of the Ethereum ecosystem and compliance progress. In the long term, we need to be cautious of the revaluation opportunities of cryptocurrencies as 'non-sovereign assets' amidst the deepening global debt crisis.
Key track layout, betting on re-staking (like EigenLayer), Layer 2 (like Arbitrum, zkSync), and RWA (real-world asset tokenization) and other segmented fields. These tracks may become the growth engines for Ethereum in the next phase.
Key technical points: If the price stabilizes at $2650 and breaks through $2700, it can be seen as a short-term buy signal. If it falls below the support level of $2400, there is a high probability of a pullback to below $2000.
Macroeconomic policy trends:
1. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision may only lower rates once in 2025. Progress on the China-U.S. trade agreement and the pace of stablecoin legislation will directly affect capital flows.
2. On-chain data indicators, Bitcoin MVRV (Market Value/Realized Value) ratio, changes in Ethereum Gas fees, and whale address movements can serve as warning signals for trend reversals.
3. Narrative switch signal: If BTC breaks through $120,000 and consolidates, funds may flow back to Ethereum and altcoins; pay attention to market hotspot rotations.
1. It is currently not very wise to chase Bitcoin prices; shorting at high levels is most in line with expectations. Set stop-loss at new highs; it is only suitable for making waves, entering and exiting quickly. There may be opportunities to enter during a big drop, but long-term holding is not recommended!
2. As for Ethereum, keep an eye on the situation of breaking through the $2700 resistance mentioned above. If the support at $2400 fails, it may need to pull back to $1800. The trend to enter is not obvious; it is recommended to remain in cash and observe! If you don't want to miss out, you can refer to my strategy, stabilizing with one or two solid trades is also fine!
