$BTC $ETH 5.22 Market Analysis, Bitcoin and Ethereum Show Significant Divergence Recently. Bitcoin Broke Historical High of 109804.2 Today, While Ethereum Only Reached a Maximum of 2615.46 Before Pulling Back to 2450.71 USD!
1. Core Driving Factors for Bitcoin's New High:
1. ETF net inflow remains strong, with a recent single-day net inflow of 260 million USD. Institutions like Strategy continue to increase their holdings, with current floating profits exceeding 20 billion USD, indicating confidence in Bitcoin's long-term value.
2. After the new high in gold prices, Bitcoin's safe-haven property as 'digital gold' is strengthened, combined with rising expectations for Fed interest rate cuts (probability raised to 45%), funds are migrating from traditional markets to the crypto space.
3. Breakthrough of the key resistance level at 107000, technical formation shows a breakout of an upward channel. Although the RSI has entered the overbought zone, buying pressure is strong.
- The market greed index reaches 74, with a balanced long-short holding ratio, showing increased pressure on shorts, pushing prices further up.
2. Core Reasons for Limited Ethereum's Price Increase:
1. Despite completing the Pectra upgrade (increasing validator staking limits, optimizing gas fees), on-chain trading volume and active address growth are weak, leading to stagnation in foundational layer activity, undermining the actual effect of the deflationary mechanism.
2. Inflows to Ethereum ETFs lag significantly behind Bitcoin (total scale is only 8% of Bitcoin's), with even a single-day net outflow in May, reflecting insufficient institutional interest.
3. Although the Pectra upgrade improved performance, market concerns about increased centralization have not dissipated, and the development of L2 layers has diverted on-chain activity, weakening Ethereum's core narrative (deflation + high on-chain demand).
- The ETH/BTC exchange rate remains sluggish, and the MVRV ratio is at a historical low, reflecting a lack of confidence in Ethereum's valuation.
3. Key Points to Observe Moving Forward:
1. Can Bitcoin hold the new high and challenge 110000? Pay attention to the Fed meeting minutes on May 22 and the volatility brought by derivatives expiration. If it holds above 107000, the target will point to 110000 USD.
2. Can 'junk' Ethereum break resistance and activate Altseason? If ETH holds above 2500 and breaks the 2700 resistance, it may drive altcoin performance; if it falls below the 2400 support, it will likely pull back to the 1800 position.
3. The SEC's approval progress for Ethereum spot ETFs, the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm, and geopolitical risks, such as a downgrade of the US credit rating, will affect capital flows.
