Bitcoin (BTC) has once again energized the crypto community by surpassing the $111,000 mark, establishing a new all-time high. However, this price increase seems to differ significantly from previous cycles.
Based on market indicators and on-chain data, three significant differences stand out compared to previous Bitcoin peaks. These differences suggest a more mature market that is less driven by speculation. Let's examine them in detail.
#1. Low funding rate: the futures market shows less overheating
A key indicator of market heating is the funding rate on perpetual futures contracts. This rate represents the cost that traders pay to maintain long or short positions and reflects the prevailing market sentiment.
According to data from CryptoQuant, when Bitcoin hit peaks in March and December 2024, the funding rate skyrocketed. This indicated an excess of long positions and an overheated environment. Situations like this often resulted in sharp corrections in price.
Bitcoin Funding Rate. Source: CryptoQuant.
However, in May 2025, although long positions increased, the funding rate remained significantly lower than in previous peaks. This indicates that the current rally is less influenced by excessive speculation in the futures market.
"... compared to March and December of last year, perpetual funding rates are much lower now than they were then. This means that the recent rally was driven by spot purchases and is much less overheated. Violent pullbacks are unlikely," said Nic, CEO and co-founder of Coin Bureau.
This level of stability represents a positive sign. It indicates that the market is evolving more sustainably.
#2. Weaker ETF flows: where is the buying pressure coming from?
In previous bull cycles—especially in March and December 2024—spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States played a significant role in driving up prices. Data from Glassnode reveals that these funds recorded inflows of billions of dollars during these periods.
However, during the new peak in May 2025, inflows to ETFs were relatively modest.
Net Flows of Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. Source: Glassnode.
A recent report from BeInCrypto highlighted that spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded inflows of $608.99 million, marking six consecutive days of increased investor confidence.
Graphs from Glassnode show that while the price of Bitcoin rose from $70,000 to over $100,000 recently, inflows into ETFs remained well below the levels observed in previous peaks. According to Nic, this indicates that ETF investors—both retail and institutional—are not leading the current rally.
"Recent ETF flows are much more contained than they were during previous historical record breaks. This means that ETF buyers (retail and institutions) are not the largest contributors to this rally," Nic added.
This scenario raises a relevant question: if ETFs are not driving the increase, who is buying Bitcoin?
Some analysts speculate that large companies like Strategy (MSTR) or other funds may be quietly accumulating BTC. However, the available data is still limited, which leaves room for potentially greater appreciation if institutional investors return to the market more forcefully.
#3. Retail investors are absent, social metrics at record low levels
Another significant difference in this cycle is the absence of retail investors.
In previous highs, each Bitcoin peak was accompanied by a significant increase in public interest. This movement was reflected in engagement metrics...
Bitcoin Price and Historical Social Metric. Source: Into The Cryptoverse.
Specifically, Google searches for 'Bitcoin' in May 2025 showed little variation compared to previous peak periods. This indicates that retail investors have not yet entered the market on a large scale.
Furthermore, data from CryptoQuant reveals that the number of wallets classified as 'shrimp'—those holding less than 1 BTC—has fallen to the lowest level since 2021.
This absence of retail participation could represent a positive sign. It indicates that the current rally is not being driven by FOMO (fear of missing out), one of the main drivers of bubbles and abrupt declines. Instead, organic demand from long-term investors seems to play a central role.
All these elements point to a more developed market, with potential for more sustainable growth.
Can Bitcoin reach $120,000, as many analysts project? Only time will tell. But for now, this is a cycle that deserves attention.
The article The 3 Main Differences in Bitcoin's New Record in 2025 was first seen on BeInCrypto Brazil.
