Bitcoin surged on May 22, breaking through the $110,000 mark in one fell swoop, refreshing its historical high and showing its kingly demeanor. In contrast, Ethereum, although with gains, has been hovering around $2,600, showing a slump. As the pioneer of smart contract platforms in the past, Ethereum is now deeply mired in difficulties—facing the strong rise of emerging public chains such as Solana, its on-chain activity continues to be sluggish, transaction volume growth is weak, and ecological expansion is severely lagging behind. Even with continuous technical upgrades, stubborn problems such as high transaction fees and slow processing speeds have not been completely eradicated. More seriously, if this trend continues, Ethereum's position as the "second child in the currency circle" may be difficult to maintain. In this situation, investors can't help but think deeply: when Bitcoin is advancing triumphantly and Ethereum is gradually declining, is it wise to exchange Ethereum for Bitcoin at this moment?

I. Market Trends and Price Comparison

After breaking through $110,000 on May 22, Bitcoin (BTC) remained in the $110,000-$111,000 range on May 23, setting a new historical high. Its upward momentum comes from continuous inflows of institutional funds (such as Strategy company increasing its holdings of 7,390 BTC, with a total holding value of over $23 billion), the net asset value of spot ETFs reaching $129 billion, and a shift in regulatory policies towards friendliness (SEC Chairman Atkins promised to promote clear cryptocurrency regulation). Technical indicators show that Bitcoin's daily chart shows an upward trend, the upper rail of the Bollinger Bands continues to rise, the RSI has entered the overbought zone (72), but the long-term funding rate remains positive (0.0054%), and the market sentiment greed index has risen to 73, showing strong buying power.

Ethereum (ETH) is currently priced at around $2,480-$2,520, performing weaker than Bitcoin. Despite BlackRock's BUIDL fund continuously increasing its holdings of Ethereum ecosystem assets (increasing to $3.02 billion), and spot ETFs experiencing net inflows for three consecutive days (May 20 saw inflows of $64.889 million), the competitive pressure from public chains like Solana is significant—Solana's single-day revenue on May 13 reached $7.9 million, 3 times that of Ethereum, and its on-chain transaction volume and dApp activity have surpassed Ethereum. In addition, the number of active Ethereum on-chain addresses decreased as the price rebounded, with some investors choosing to take profits during the rebound.

II. Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment

Bitcoin's technical form shows that the retracement support after the breakthrough is solid. According to Sohu.com's strategy, after Bitcoin stabilizes above $109,000, the primary target points to $112,000, and the stop loss can be set below $106,000. Options market data shows that the proportion of Bitcoin call options is significantly higher than put options, reflecting professional investors' confidence in the medium and long-term trend.

Ethereum's technical indicators do not clearly show a strong rebound signal. Although the Pectra upgrade reduced Layer 2 fees (handling fees fell below $1), and the number of Layer 2 networks increased to 7 (such as Base reaching the first stage of decentralization), its price is still restricted by the $2,600 resistance level, and it may fall back to the $2,400 support range if it cannot break through. In terms of market sentiment, although the Ethereum options market is biased towards bullishness, the funding rate is lower than Bitcoin, indicating that the bulls' confidence is relatively weak.

III. Macroeconomic and Regulatory Factors

The Federal Reserve's policy maintains interest rates unchanged, but the probability of the market expecting an interest rate cut in June has risen to 45%. If the rate cut is implemented, it may further boost the liquidity of the cryptocurrency market. In terms of the regulatory environment, the SEC's recognition of the physical redemption mechanism for Ethereum ETFs is regarded as a positive signal, but the review of Bitcoin ETFs is still being extended (BlackRock's physical redemption request has no clear timetable). In addition, several US states are promoting Bitcoin reserve plans, strengthening its "digital gold" positioning.

IV. Conversion Strategies and Risk Control

1. Short-term Speculation: If market sentiment continues to be bullish on Bitcoin, consider converting some Ethereum to Bitcoin to capture the opportunity to break through $112,000. It is recommended to set a stop-loss point (such as Bitcoin falling below $107,000), and control the risk of a single transaction to 1.5%-2% of the total capital.

2. Long-term Allocation: Bitcoin's scarcity and institutional recognition make it more suitable for long-term value storage, while Ethereum's ecological potential remains (such as Layer 2 expansion and RWA applications). It is recommended to adjust the Ethereum holding ratio to 30%-50%, and allocate the rest to Bitcoin and other mainstream assets.

3. Diversified Investment: Avoid full conversion, and conduct spot transactions on platforms such as Binance (fee rate 0.1%, discounts are available for holding platform coins), and pay attention to investment opportunities in emerging public chains such as Solana to balance risks.

V. Risk Warning

1. Market Volatility: Bitcoin plummeted to $80,000 in April 2025 due to tariff policies, and it is necessary to be wary of profit-taking pressure after the breakthrough.

2. Regulatory Uncertainty: The SEC's final review results of Ethereum ETFs, the probability of Solana ETFs being approved (82%), etc., may affect market sentiment.

3. Technical Risks: Although Ethereum's Layer 2 network reduces handling fees, DeFi TVL growth is limited ($10 billion), and whether Bitcoin's Inscription ecosystem can continue to support prices needs to be observed.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is currently in a strong upward cycle, with institutional funds and technical indicators supporting further gains, while Ethereum faces competitive pressure and regulatory uncertainty. If users are pursuing high liquidity and long-term stability, converting some Ethereum to Bitcoin is a reasonable choice, but the ratio needs to be controlled according to one's own risk tolerance (it is recommended to allocate 60% to Bitcoin, 30% to Ethereum, and 10% to others), and closely monitor the following key nodes:

• May 25: Can Ethereum's technical upgrade boost on-chain activity?

• June FOMC Meeting: Will the Federal Reserve's expectation of interest rate cuts be realized?

• SEC Policy Dynamics: Progress of Ethereum ETF approval and the final result of Bitcoin's physical redemption mechanism.

It is recommended to consult a professional financial advisor before converting, develop a strategy based on personal investment goals, and strictly implement stop-loss discipline to cope with market fluctuations. #比特币突破11万美元