Bitcoin has reached a new high again. Today, on Pizza Day, Bitcoin peaked at 111,866 points, setting a historical high, and there is still a trend of further increase. After 17 years of storms and rain, the early simple spark of cypherpunks has already become a prairie fire that cannot be contained.
Unlike the excitement from Bitcoin's new high attracting external attention, the enthusiasm within the community has significantly decreased. The absence of Bitcoin has become the greatest irony for most retail investors within the community when facing external congratulations for making big money. Even though I believe Bitcoin will reach 1 million dollars in our lifetime, the number of players considering holding without Bitcoin remains very few.
Operationally, Bitcoin positions have been reduced by half when above 105,000 points, and the total position is already 30% empty. If the Bitcoin rises violently again to around 120,000 points in the short term, another 10% will be reduced.
After Bitcoin continues to rise and set new highs, combining the messages and consultations from various channels, several core issues have been summarized.
The first point is about the cycle. I have always believed that the bull market cycle has not ended and that there is still a small distance remaining. This distance may bring about a local surge in altcoins, but it definitely won't lead to a comprehensive explosive rise like the last bull market.
The second point is about my operational strategy. Many partners started reducing positions in Bitcoin at 105,000 points, and after breaking this level, they couldn’t understand it. Technically, Bitcoin reached 105,000 points, forming a daily divergence indicator. This position is at the upper track of the daily trend at that time and also a strong resistance at a previous high. Considering the cost and revenue from buying at 44,000 and 80,000 points, there’s no need to gamble on Bitcoin breaking through the current structure. The first and last bites of the market can easily lead to losses. Compared to Bitcoin's new high, there are many altcoins with good ecosystems that can obviously provide better cost performance in the late bull market.
The third point is about everyone's self-position management planning. I believe that most people do not have a plan. This has led to last month's release of the latest batch of doubling plans, the release of a $200,000 plan, and the market at just above 80,000 points calling for bottom fishing being largely ignored, with most people on the sidelines. After the new high today, people keep asking which ones to ambush, one after another. A reasonable position structure is nothing more than bottom fishing in despair and slowly selling off during FOMO, right?
The more the market declines, the more tokens you have; the more the market rises, the more USDT you have. If you ask me whether to go all-in at this position, my answer would definitely be no. Bitcoin has reached a new high, but many altcoins are just getting started. If Bitcoin does a necessary pullback before a high-level reversal, those who chase in now will become the nutrients for the final batch of strategic players successfully bottoming out amid the downtrend in altcoins.
So, what if Bitcoin reverses like this? The shackles of daily divergence and trend pressure can potentially change the current structure under a large bullish candle. This means that Bitcoin does indeed have the possibility of a local reversal, successfully driving a collective reversal in altcoins. However, what I want to express is that rather than chasing altcoins now to bet on Bitcoin's immediate reversal, it is better to wait for a confirmed reversal or pullback signal before positioning. The former is speculating based on emotions and FOMO, while the latter is a clear and relatively safe strategic participation.
In the last 24 hours, the contract market saw liquidations of 530 million dollars, adding to nearly 900 million dollars from yesterday. Historically, those who gamble do not end well; what I cannot teach, the market will certainly teach. Speaking of which, I should mention that some partners misunderstood my reduction of positions as being bearish. If this is the level of understanding, then losing money will become a certainty.
In contrast to the low enthusiasm in the Asian market, Americans have recently been extremely enthusiastic about crypto. Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen net inflows for six consecutive trading days, with a net inflow of 607 million dollars yesterday. Currently, the macro sentiment in the US is quite excited, and players are eagerly anticipating further developments.
The altcoin sector is quite complicated. In previous articles, my reduction strategy for Ethereum and most altcoins remained unchanged, with a small portion of those who gained more than 50% selling some. My logic is that Ethereum's expectations are far from being met, and the average return of the altcoins bought in several batches is over 30%, which is sufficient for risk resistance. Based on this premise and synchronizing with it, whether the big market rises or falls next, we can have evidence for entry and exit.
What is meant to come will come, and what is meant to rise will not be absent. Every segment's high point results come from the unity of knowledge and action when the market's certainty signals are established. Everyone, reject the noise, protect your capital, and patiently wait for the next operational point.
BTC: The logic for Bitcoin's potential reversal or technical pullback has been clearly stated above. After briefly retreating from the first breakthrough of the historical high yesterday, it made a second new high. If the probability of Bitcoin experiencing a divergence and a pullback was 60% before yesterday, today’s two consecutive breakthroughs have decreased it to 40%. But considering realistic liquidity factors, Bitcoin's current cost performance has indeed dropped significantly from its peak. Technically, for Bitcoin to establish a reversal in the current daily uptrend, it must stabilize above 116,000 points, and the signal for the end of the upward trend is if it drops below 105,000 points. In terms of operations, I will not change my judgment just because Bitcoin has reached a short-term new high; let’s continue to unify knowledge and action.
ETH: Ethereum is too weak. Institutions suggest that Ethereum needs to break above 2,800 points to start a main upward wave; for now, just hold.
SUI: The SUI ecosystem DEX Bluefin was hacked, and related on-chain tokens fell by about 80%. SUI dropped 15% briefly, and based on feedback from various sources, the SUI ecosystem is unlikely to collapse due to an attack of over 200 million. If a short-term drop of more than 20% occurs, it might still be worth speculating. Our doubling series is priced just above two dollars, and currently, there seems to be no possibility of dropping to this level. Choosing is more important than effort; sufficiently safe cost positions can bear most of the risks, and anything above 3.4 points is safe; if it drops below, clearing positions is not too late.
Regarding altcoins: RWA is still fermenting today, USD1 has also launched, and today there is a large batch of fiat stablecoins from sovereign countries going online. I heard that there are also movements from the Eastern University recently, and the overall situation in the second half of the year is still quite good. In the short term for accumulating altcoins, my relatively candid view is that when Bitcoin has a chance to reverse or may decline, just hold onto the previous positions, increase positions on the right side during the reversal, and buy at high cost performance during the pullback. Getting stuck in the middle with FOMO, betting incorrectly on the rhythm, could really lead to perfectly missing the final segment of the market.
The Fear and Greed Index is at 72 today.
Lastly, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot!#比特币突破11万美元 #GENIUS稳定币法案 $BTC
