In the past two days, the Bitcoin long-short volatility range has reached 5000 points. The direct impact on the market is that the drop in altcoins is much larger than the rise. A considerable proportion of altcoins have dropped nearly a week's worth of gains in three days, intensifying the tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
After the previous suggestion to reduce positions in Bitcoin and some high-profit altcoins, many friends are now asking if Bitcoin has the possibility of a fake-out reversal during the current high-level adjustment. Looking at the charts from a bullish sentiment perspective, it seems Bitcoin is forming such a pattern, with each low point being pulled back, and the four-hour chart has also shown a short-term high.
However, I still firmly believe that the market's short-term liquidity is insufficient to support a comprehensive reversal, even if Bitcoin has reached a new high at this stage.
The basic premise for a market reversal, one of the logics, is a large injection of macro liquidity, such as the buying pressure brought by the Bitcoin spot ETF during the period when it was just approved, which far exceeded the funds within the market. The peak of fund transfer within the circle can only maintain Ethereum's current height, and that's it.
Establishing a short-term peak does not mean that the market will immediately crash. The brewing of emotions is to absorb more reverse chips before the trend is established, thus increasing the success rate of the market makers' game. Everyone, reducing profit positions at any level is correct.
The U.S. stablecoin bill is currently nearing its final stages and will likely pass as scheduled. Philosophically, existence is reasonable; the best conspiracy in the world is to lay plans and objectives directly on the table, making it unavoidable. In this horizontal comparison, the East is completely defeated. This stablecoin bill not only maintains its traditional position as the crypto giant but also creates very feasible expectations for digesting a massive amount of U.S. debt in the future. The world's number one status is well-deserved.
The South Korean president recently proposed issuing a stablecoin pegged to the Korean won to prevent capital outflow. Given this international trend, it is highly likely that the Chinese yuan will need to respond accordingly. There are rumors that the inland will open the crypto market within two months. Although I personally think this possibility is basically non-existent, let's consider it a stance of relevant domestic institutions on the opening of the crypto market. We will wait for specific policies.
Yesterday, the net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs was 667 million USD, and the net inflow of Ethereum spot ETFs was 13.66 million USD. This data looks quite good. If it can be maintained until the end of the month, the potential downward trend caused by insufficient liquidity may end and reverse in advance.
The approval of the SOL spot ETF continues to be postponed. Based on the current market situation, it is expected that the upcoming ETF spot staking will also be delayed. The specific reason, I believe, is the current lack of necessity in the market for approval. The differences in the current environment compared to last year are not the same, and the urgency is different; market stability is a priority.
Everyone can pay extra attention to Binance's Alpha, a free airdrop section. It's essentially pure freebie. Since the end of last month, General Liang has had four accounts, and with a single account loss not exceeding 100 USD, he has accumulated 4800 USD in airdrops, which is much better than most web2 jobs.
After the above text, the community is also actively connecting with some technically skilled traders and internal fans. The online teaching section will be launched as early as Friday, with a slight distinction between public and internal classes. Additionally, rebate agreements with several major exchanges have been established. Partners who registered under the community can contact General Liang, with priority given to teaching crypto newcomers targeting community node fans.
BTC: The concentration zone of large Bitcoin holders is currently between 93,000 and 97,000 points. In terms of cyclical trends, this range will become a strong support before Bitcoin reaches new highs. In the short term, I believe even if Bitcoin slightly adjusts, it will test the previous high, but it won't be able to bring about a sustained violent rally to change the current fundamentals. A more reasonable liquidity adjustment logic is to maintain a slight downward trend in the short term to strongly test the bottom, thereby building momentum for future new highs. Continue to watch the support at 10,100 points; if it falls below this level, it will indicate a certain period of bottom confirmation. The upper pressure level is the short-term high, and this logic will basically remain consistent before a new high breakout or before the downward trend's support is broken. Be cautious about chasing highs.
ETH: Ethereum is linked to Bitcoin, and we are waiting for a dip to increase our positions. Personally, I have not moved my Ethereum position at this level. If it goes down, just adjust the part that was reduced from Bitcoin here.
For altcoins: RWA and DeFi concepts are likely to take the lead. The stablecoin bill is quite beneficial for DeFi, and Aave is also rising for this reason. For altcoin positions, let's hold steady for now, except for those that should be reduced; we can discuss further once the trend emerges.
The Fear and Greed Index is at 71 today.
Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot assets!
