Recently, many people have been saying 'Bitcoin is digital gold', but we common folks need to clarify: is this thing truly as stable as gold, or just a hype? To put it plainly, gold is the 'hard currency veteran' of the earth; no matter how much is mined, it is universally recognized. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is a 'virtual limited edition' created by code, appearing scarce, but the reality is very complex.

First point: Scarcity is indeed impressive, but volatility is like a roller coaster.

Gold fluctuates, with about a 15% fluctuation over ten years, like a stable elevator; Bitcoin, on the other hand, has a volatility rate over 70% in the last decade, dropping 30% in one day in 2021, and halving to 'ankle level' in 2022. You say it's scarce, indeed—totaling 21 million coins hard-coded, even more 'absolute' than gold, but the problem is, gold stored in a safe won't suddenly lose half its value, whereas Bitcoin might lose the equivalent of a car's worth overnight. Can ordinary folks use it as 'lifesaving money'? First, ask yourself if your heart can handle it.

Second point: Gold has a 'solid backing', Bitcoin relies entirely on 'wishful thinking'.

Gold can be used not only as jewelry or stored in banks but also for making chips and aerospace applications; it has real industrial demand supporting its value. What about Bitcoin? It relies solely on people's 'belief in its value'. If one day global governments say 'ban cryptocurrencies', Bitcoin could drop to zero, while gold can still be melted down to make rings. You see central banks hoarding gold every year, but is there any country treating Bitcoin as foreign exchange reserves? Even the US SEC only regards it as a 'commodity', not recognizing it as a 'safe-haven asset'; isn't this attitude clear enough?

Third point: Institutional entry is a good thing, but regulatory pressure looms overhead.

Now, giants like Tesla and BlackRock are indeed buying Bitcoin, and it seems quite glamorous, but don't forget, China has long banned trading, and the US is investigating 'money laundering' and 'market manipulation'. Gold has long been 'tamed' by the financial system, trading is orderly and taxed; what about Bitcoin? Countries are keeping an eye on it, and if one day it is required that 'all transactions must go through regulatory chains', its claimed 'decentralization' will become mere decoration. To put it bluntly, if Bitcoin wants to be like gold, it first has to pass the 'government test', but the current relationship is more like 'cat and mouse'.

How should the common people view this? Remember these two sentences.

• Don't dream in the short term: Bitcoin is still a 'high-risk toy', suitable for those with money who can afford to lose it all; ordinary investors should not exceed a 5% position.

• Look at the long-term fate: If regulation relaxes in the future and institutions buy more, it may gradually stabilize and resemble 'digital gold', but the premise is to avoid being killed by technical loopholes (like being hacked) or sudden policy changes.

Lastly, let me say something from the heart: Gold took thousands of years to become the 'king of safe havens', Bitcoin is only 14 years old, there's still a long way to go. Do you think it can succeed? Feel free to share your bold thoughts in the comments—anyway, I think, don't rush to put your retirement savings on the line!

(Follow me for more grounded investment truths and to help you avoid cryptocurrency pitfalls!)#比特币减半完成