Can Bitcoin rise to $200,000?

Bitcoin is now around $107,000, and many large institutions are optimistic: Bitwise executives say that with funds flooding in through ETFs, and companies and governments buying, it could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025; Standard Chartered is even more direct, predicting $200,000 and suggesting it might rise another $100,000 each year thereafter. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin will become scarcer after its halving in 2024 (with an inflation rate lower than gold), which may support its price in the long term.

Why are some people bullish? First, large institutions are entering the market, with the U.S. Bitcoin ETF already attracting $41.7 billion; giants like BlackRock and Fidelity are buying, and even the U.S. government holds $17 billion and plans to increase its holdings; second, technology has upgraded, with the Lightning Network handling 100,000 transactions per second, as Bitcoin slowly transitions from a "speculative asset" to a "practical currency"; third, supply is low and demand is high, with only 165,000 new coins minted each year post-halving, while ETFs need to buy 500,000 coins annually, leading to a potential supply-demand imbalance that could drive prices up.

However, the risks are considerable: domestic regulations currently prohibit cryptocurrency trading, and individuals trading through channels like USDT may face frozen funds; while U.S. policies have loosened somewhat, they may change again; recently, Bitcoin has been stuck at $107,000 without breaking through, and technically it appears to be due for a correction, plus 65% of traders are using leverage, making it easy to trigger a sell-off in case of a drop; changes in Federal Reserve policies and trade tensions could also impact Bitcoin's trajectory.

Historically, Bitcoin tends to surge significantly 1-2 years after each halving, and it may still be building momentum after the 2024 halving, with a true breakout potentially occurring in 2025-2026. Interestingly, while institutions are still buying, retail investors are hesitant to engage (the number of active accounts has fallen to a three-year low), suggesting a sentiment of "institutional optimism, retail caution" in the market.

In summary: There is a chance for Bitcoin to reach $200,000 in 2025, especially driven by institutional investment, technology, and reduced supply, but policies, volatility, and the broader environment are all risk factors. Ordinary investors should remember not to go all-in or use leverage; it’s best to diversify risk with some gold or funds. Want to know the future trends? Follow us so you don’t get lost! If you find this useful, share it with friends and let’s discuss together! If you have any questions, feel free to leave a comment, and we can chat!