1.Binance: Bitcoin and Ethereum Netflows Turn Positive:
As Bitcoin achieved an all-time high (ATH) of $111,000, Binance recorded positive net flows of approximately 3,000 BTC and 60,000 ETH.
This influx signifies a change in investor behavior, indicating that holders might be preparing to liquidate or trade their assets at optimal prices. Historically, substantial exchange inflows are associated with heightened selling pressure as investors seize opportunities to capitalize on market peaks.
2. Binance Open Interest Reaches Over 12 Billion — A Double-Edged Sword:
Open Interest on Binance has climbed back to 12+ billion, levels that mirror those of December 2024. High OI typically reflects strong speculative activity in the derivatives market, which can amplify both rallies and corrections.
While high OI during an uptrend is a bullish continuation signal when supported by spot buying, it can also signal overleveraged speculation when not backed by fresh demand.
3. Estimated Leverage Ratio Returns to 0.20
The Estimated Leverage Ratio on Binance has returned to its December 2024 levels, indicating increased use of leverage among participants.
It measures the average leverage utilized in open futures positions and serves as a strong indicator of market risk.
Conclusion: Are We Repeating December’s Setup?
In summary, the reappearance of the following signals at Bitcoin’s all-time high of $111,000 paints a cautious picture:
These are not inherently bearish signals in isolation. However, when combined, they historically correlate with profit-taking behavior and often precede volatility spikes or corrections. Traders and investors should remain alert: these same conditions marked the beginning of localized tops in late 2024, especially after periods of aggressive upside.
Written by Amr Taha
