Analysis tips and risk reminders regarding Bitcoin's breakthrough of historical highs:
Market Status Verification
As of Q3 2024, Bitcoin's actual historical highest price is $73,798 (March 2024 data)
The statement of breaking $110,000 differs significantly from the current market, data sources need to be verified
Major exchanges' spot quotes show recent highs in the $72,000 - $75,000 range
Technical Analysis Verification
The "cup and handle" theory target needs to be confirmed with specific cycle charts
The key resistance level on the monthly chart is around $85,000 (Fibonacci extension)
On-chain data needs to be cross-verified through professional platforms such as Glassnode/Nansen
Institutional Movement Tracking
The latest 13F report shows:
BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF position growth is slowing
Fidelity recently experienced a one-day net outflow
The actual share of positions held by compliant institutions is 4.2% of circulation
Macroeconomic Environment Observation
CME FedWatch shows a September rate cut probability of only 38%
The actual yield on U.S. Treasuries remains at a high of 2.1%
The dollar liquidity index (DXY) remains above 105
Rational Investment Advice
The 90-day volatility index for cryptocurrencies is currently at 82%, in a high-risk zone
The on-chain realized profit and loss ratio (SOPR) shows short-term overheating signals
Position control is advised: High-risk asset allocation should not exceed 5% of total assets
Risk Warning
The perpetual contract funding rate continues to exceed 0.05%
The exchange's BTC reserve has decreased by 120,000 coins over the past 30 days, posing liquidity risks
The SEC's regulatory investigations into several exchanges are ongoing
The current market is in a critical game phase, investors should:
Strictly set stop-loss orders (recommended not exceeding 15% of the holding price)
Pay attention to the CME futures gap support at $71,000
Beware of flash crash risks triggered by leveraged liquidations
Prioritize cold wallet storage for long-term holdings
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